Early season conditions exist, rocks and downed timber lurk just below the surface.
Weather Forecast
Cold and unsettled weather over the next 24 hours. Winds will be southerly and light in the valley with up to 10cm of new snow. Towards the weekend the temperatures will warm and significant snow is expected early next week.
Snowpack Summary
Variable wind slab on lee features at treeline and alpine elevations. Variable snowpack depths, particularly in the alpine, with pockets up to 1m deep. October's rain crust is sporadically distributed but forecasters are still investigating this condition. Recent North winds are loading South aspects.
Avalanche Summary
Patrol on Tuesday observed two avalanches 24 hours old. Size 2-2.5 at 2800m crossloaded SE to S aspect feature on what appears to be the Oct raincrust 40-50cm down. Suspect solar trigger.
Confidence
Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Saturday
Problems
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.