If precipitation amounts exceed expectations on Tuesday and Wednesday, hazard rating will incrementally increase especially with winds.
Weather Forecast
Weather models are not agreeing with precipitation amounts this week. Some say a trace Monday to Wednesday while others say 15cm on Monday, 15-20 on Tuesday, and 10-15 on Wednesday. Maybe locally at the Icefields. I expect lesser precipitation amounts for our region as the variables don't appear to be lining up.
Snowpack Summary
Surface facetting and surface hoar continues to form with the cold temps. A Hard mid-pack is providing bridging strength over the weak basal facet layer at tree line and above. Below treeline where the snowpack exceeds 70cm, it has a supportive mid-pack.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches reported Sunday. An avalanche patrol down Highway 93 on Friday observed several size 1.5 slab avalanches in the alpine on reverse loaded features likely from the previous three days. Similar observations were seen in the Maligne valley as well. No patrol occurred on Saturday.
Confidence
Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Tuesday
Problems
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.