Expect the sun to have a lot of influence with the high daytime freezing levels.
Weather Forecast
Despite Environment Canada's forecast for Jasper, there is likely only 5cm of snow forecast for the next several days. Skies should be broken, with lots of solar effect whenever the sun breaks through. Winds should remain light to moderate, westerly or southwesterly. Freezing levels will be treeline elevation reaching Alpine on Thursday.
Snowpack Summary
Up to 10 cm of new snow has fallen in the last 2 days with moderate SW winds at and above treeline. This new snow lies on a variety of surfaces from windscoured locations in the Alpine to melt freeze crusts below treeline and a combination of well-settled snow and crusts in between; mostly depending on the amount of solar exposure of the slope.
Avalanche Summary
1 size 2 slab avalanche near Big Bend on 93S was noted where wind loading and/or rising freezing levels triggered a 70m wide slab from a steep Northeast slope at 2300m. Recent snow and winds had mostly smoothed out the fracture line, and much of the scoured Alpine has a deceptively camouflaged white cover.
Confidence
Freezing levels are uncertain
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.