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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 16th, 2018–Nov 17th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Blue skies and early-season ambitions will bring people out in large numbers, so be mindful of parties above and below you. Rocks and other hidden dangers still lurk near the surface, so ride with caution.

Weather Forecast

Clearing and calm after the last few days' storm. No snowfall and a mix of sun and cloud is forecasted for the next 3 days. Freezing levels should remain below 1000m today and Saturday, with a warming on Sunday to 1400m. Ridge winds will remain light from the west.

Snowpack Summary

45cm of storm snow with moderate winds mainly from the S over the last 48hrs. Storm snow overlies surface hoar or a suncrust that has been found above 1900m up Connaught drainage and in the Asulkan hut area. Deeper in the snowpack is the October melt freeze crust. Snow depths vary from 75cm at Rogers Pass, to 150-170cm in alpine areas.

Avalanche Summary

No avalanche observations from the last 24 hours due to poor visibility. Suspect there was a natural cycle from steep, alpine start zones (Macdonald, Tupper, Cheops) during the peak wind event overnight. Likely avalanches were up to size 2.5-3 and running onto their fans.

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.