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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 13th, 2015–Jan 14th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Little Yoho.

We have little confidence in the Dec 18 layer and it is the prime depth for human triggering.  We believe any steep start zone could be triggered at this time.

Weather Forecast

The forecast calls for warmer temperatures tomorrow (-5C in the alpine), but the cloud cover and light west winds should keep things from getting too warm.  Temperatures will cool Thursday and the winds will pick up as the next skiff of snow arrives on Friday.

Snowpack Summary

Snowpack observations at 2200m on Mt. Field on Monday and Emerald Lake slide path today indicate the Dec 18 surface hoar layer down 45cm remains prominent with moderate test results, This layer remains prime for human triggering and continues to be slow to heal. Some wind effect on the snow surface.

Avalanche Summary

Flights over the park today with good visibility revealed a widespread natural avalanche cycle over the past 36-hours. Wide propagations at treeline and above up to size 3, many running to the bottom of the runout zones.

Confidence

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.