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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 8th, 2012–Dec 9th, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kootenay Boundary.

Confidence

Fair - Timing of incoming weather is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Sunday:  Warm front reaches the Interior. Snow amounts 5-10 cm, ridgetop winds W 20 km/hr , alpine temps near -5, freezing levels at 500 m.Monday: Trace of new snow, ridgetop winds W 20 km/hr, alpine temps near -6, freezing levels 900 m.Tuesday: The cold front is expected to slide down from the North bringing moderate snow fall amounts, ridgetop winds SW 30 km/hr, alpine temps near -8, freezing levels near 1000 m.

Avalanche Summary

Recent explosive control work triggered several 1.5-2.0 slab avalanches on SE-SW aspects 1700 m and above. These avalanches failed on the early December crust, that recently got buried. Please don't confuse this with the early November facet/crust layer that sits near the base of the snowpack.Any observations from the field are welcome at [email protected].

Snowpack Summary

The Kootenays have received over a metre of snow over the past week, with Kootenay Pass seeing the highest amount regionally. Regardless, current surfaces most likely include varying amounts of fairly low density storm snow which override wind slabs that formed earlier in the week. Below the recent storm snow exists a surface hoar layer that was buried at the end of November. Recent tests on this layer show CTM (SP) down 100 cm sliding on surface hoar 4-10 mm in size.Near the base of the snowpack sits the early November rain crust. This layer is most likely to be found in deeper snowpack areas at higher elevations. I'm not aware of any activity on this layer in the KB region; however, deep and destructive releases have been observed in the South Columbia region (directly to the north). Keep this on your radar, especially when traveling in areas at higher elevations that have a smooth ground cover where the existing crust is uniform and consistent. Average snowpack depths at treeline are 130-200 cm. There are significant variations in snowpack structure from one drainage to another. In short, digging down and making your own observations will be critical to safe slope selection.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.