Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

The storm system is moving out today, and northwest gap winds are picking up. Natural avalanches are possible on buried weak layers 1 to 2' deep, and human-triggered avalanches are likely in areas with recent wind loading. Girdwood and Portage received more new snowfall this week, and we expect weak layers to be more sensitive in these areas. We recommend using conservative terrain choices to reduce your exposure and give our weak snowpack time to adjust to the recent load. 

Portage Valley - The combination of recent snowfall and gap winds today makes natural avalanches likely in Portage Valley. We recommend that ice climbers in the area carefully consider overhead hazards today, as we have a weak snowpack setup and there is potential for avalanches to release naturally and run into lower elevations.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

Chugach State Park - We have issued a SPECIAL AVALANCHE BULLETIN for the Chugach State Park forecast area through the National Weather Service starting today at 6 am through 6 am Thursday, January 8th. Large human-triggered avalanches are likely after the recent heavy snowfall and northwest winds expected today.

Our second Forecaster Chat of the season is tomorrow, Thursday, Jan. 8, at the Girdwood Brewery. The event is free, and the show will start at 6:00 pm. Come on down! More info here.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Recent avalanches: The last reported avalanche activity was last Wednesday, when avalanches were triggered in many locations on the skier's side and motorized side of Turnagain Pass. Since the latest storm started on Sunday evening, we don't have any reports of new human-triggered avalanche activity, but have received many observations of large collapses in the treeline elevation band from 1000' to 2500'. 

    The low-pressure system that brought low-density snow throughout the region over the past few days is moving out today, and cold temperatures are going to set back in. The distribution of snowfall with this storm was atypical, with Anchorage being the clear winner in terms of snowfall and Girdwood and Portage being favored more than areas on the Kenai Peninsula.  Summit Lake and Snug Harbor also got more snowfall than Turnagain Pass and Seward, which is also not the typical pattern. See the table below for snowfall and water totals over the storm period. 

    Location Snowfall Water Anchorage (Indian Pass SNOTEL) 18" 1.3" Girdwood (Alyeska Mid Station) 13" 0.75" Portage (Bear Valley RWIS) 14" 0.89" Turangain Pass (Center Ridge SNOTEL) 5" 0.3" Summit Lake (Summit Creek SNOTEL) 9" 0.5" Snug Harbor (Cooper Lake SNOTEL) 9" 0.5" Seward (Grouse Creek SNOTEL) 5" 0.3"

    *Approximate snowfall totals since the latest storm started on Sunday evening (1/4/26)

    There are widespread weak layers of faceted snow throughout the forecast region, ranging from 1 to 2' deep. Avalanche likelihood today depends heavily on how much new snow fell locally and whether winds are actively loading slopes:

    • In areas that received more snow (e.g., Girdwood, Portage) and are seeing wind loading today, human-triggered avalanches are likely. Natural activity is possible in isolated spots. We recommend avoiding avalanche terrain to give the weak snowpack time to adjust.

    • In areas that received minimal new snow (e.g., Turnagain Pass, Seward) and have light winds today, human-triggered avalanches are possible but less likely and generally smaller.

    This is a tricky setup because the avalanche danger depends strongly on recent weather patterns and varies dramatically across the forecast region. You can always hedge your bets by sticking to simple, low-angle terrain and avoiding terrain traps to reduce your exposure. Sometimes it is tempting to try and outsmart the avalanche conditions on days like this, but with our current weak snowpack setup, it is usually better to play it safe and rely on carefully choosing safe terrain to keep yourself out of harm's way. 

    (1/4/2026) Photo: John Sykes

    Snowpack setup at 3000' on Cornbiscuit prior to the new snow. There are plenty of weak layers in the snowpack to cause avalanches in areas where new snow and wind loading are adding stress. 

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Northwest gap winds like we have today tend to impact Turnagain Arm and areas near Portage and Whittier much more than Turnagain Pass and Girdwood. With the low-density new snow from the recent storm, it won't take much wind to form fresh wind slabs 1 to 2' deep. Keep an eye out for snow being transported by the wind onto leeward slopes. These tend to form along ridgelines and convex features. Red flags on wind-loaded slopes, like recent avalanches or shooting cracks, are clear signs that wind slabs are sensitive to human triggers. A small pocket of wind slab could cause a larger avalanche on buried weak layers deeper in the snowpack.

    In sheltered areas, dry loose avalanches (sluffs) from the very low-density surface snow are very likely but typically not large enough to bury a person. 

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