Avalanche forecast

Hatcher Pass

Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The danger is MODERATE above 2500' for Persistent Slab avalanches. The danger is LOW below 2500'.

It remains possible to trigger a thicker, more destructive slide on weak snow near the ground where the snowpack is shallower, or winds have stiffened the snow surface. You are most likely to trigger an avalanche on steep terrain, near rocks and cliff bands and convexities, or rollovers. Snowpack collapsing or "whumphing" is a sign that you have found weak snow structure. 

We will update this product on Friday, January 23rd, or if conditions warrant. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Triggering a persistent slab avalanche up to 3' feet thick remains possible. You are most likely to trigger an avalanche where recent winds have stiffened the snow surface, or in shallower, rocky terrain. 

    We have seen the most natural and human activity in midslope terrain, where slabs of new January snow are cohesive but not as stiff as at ridgetops, and old, weak December snow lurks below. Welcome back to our regularly scheduled programming at Hatcher Pass. The bad news? Weak snow near the ground is relatively easy to find on leeward and protected slopes where extreme winds in 2025 left it on the ground.  The good news? Our mid and upper snowpack is largely cohesive and should be gaining strength following this storm. 

    • Avalanches will be more likely on slopes steeper than about 30 degrees. 
    • Small slides triggered in the new snow could step down into old buried weak layers, increasing avalanche size and consequence. 
    • Whumphing and collapsing of the snowpack are indications that there is weak snow failing near the ground. 
    • You may be able to trigger slides in gullies, alpine bowls, or on convex rolls where December's wind formed smooth, firm slabs over weak snow below.

    Hatcher Pass still has an overall shallow snowpack. Even a small avalanche could have heightened consequences, dragging you into or over rocks and into terrain traps like drainages. 

    Use terrain to your advantage today: seek out areas with deeper snow and avoid likely start zones like large convexities, cliff bands, or rocks. Use safe travel protocols: spot your partners and travel one at a time on suspect slopes. 

    (1/18/2026) Skier triggered avalanche that happened mid day on 1/18 near Hatch Peak's $1000 Run. 

    Photo: Alaska Guide Collective

Avalanche Discussion

Our objective avalanche hazard remains moderate. Subjectively, we are calibrating to the excitement of improved snow coverage, longer days, and the late start of the season in Hatcher Pass. This is a challenging situation to navigate, and requires some discipline: 

"Moderate is the second of five levels on the avalanche danger scale. Under Moderate danger, there are heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Features of concern should be identified, and terrain and snow should be evaluated carefully. Natural avalanches are unlikely and human-triggered avalanches are possible. Small avalanches can happen in specific areas and large avalanches in isolated areas.

Decision-making under Moderate avalanche danger can be challenging, since avalanche danger is present, but is limited in distribution, likelihood, and/or destructive potential. In some cases, the specific problem areas are well-defined and easily avoidable; in other situations, instabilities are more sporadic or more difficult to manage.  Moderate danger can apply to a variety of avalanche problem scenarios, including low-probability/high-consequence situations, when erratic yet very large avalanches are possible. Pay careful attention to the avalanche problems in the forecast to avoid slopes where avalanches can be triggered."

RECENT AVALANCHES:

Numerous natural avalanches occurred on 1/16 and were observed on 1/17 and 1/18. A party triggered a small slide on 4068 on 1/17 on the north side. On 1/18, another party remotely triggered a larger avalanche adjacent to $1000 Run while traversing Hatch Peak ridge (see photo below). Head over to the observation page to see all recent observations and get the full picture. 

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