Avalanche forecast

Flathead Range & Glacier NP

Flathead Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The snowpack is generally stable. Although unlikely, there remains a chance you could trigger a 1-3 foot thick slab avalanche, particularly on a slope without a supportable crust. Challenging travel conditions and cold temperatures dictate a simple, straightforward plan. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    The odds of triggering a slab avalanche on weak layers buried 1 to 3 feet deep continue to decrease. The weak faceted snow responsible for a rash of avalanches between January 7 and 14 is slowly gaining strength.  

    Unfortunately, we don't know which slopes have a slab-weak layer-crust setup, responsible for the Persistent Slab problem. Instead, consider the snow surface you travel on. Slopes with a supportable surface crust are found on sunny aspects and are generally the safest, as they limit the stress you place on the weak layer.  Shady areas harbor a thin, weak crust, or none at all, allowing your weight to impact deeper into the snowpack, potentially triggering a slide. 

    With the current poor-quality surface snow, choose a low-angle slope where you have a better chance of both controlling your speed and avoiding triggering a large avalanche.  

    This problem is challenging because the usual signs of an unstable snowpack, such as cracking or collapsing, are often absent before triggering a slide. If you decide to ride a steep slope, choose a runout free from terrain traps such as trees, gullies, and cliff bands to improve your odds if something goes wrong. 

    (1/11/2026)

    This small avalanche was remotely triggered by riders in the sidecountry east of WMR. This likely failed on weak snow above the Christmas Crust. Although unlikely, riders can still trigger a slide similar to this. 

Avalanche Discussion

FAC dropped the danger to LOW at all elevations on Thursday due to several factors. Staff and public observations note that it has been well over a week since the last recorded human-triggered or natural avalanche failed on a buried weak layer. Almost two weeks have passed since the snowpack was tested by loading from snowfall and wind. The heat wave we experienced on Wednesday, January 14th, left a strong crust on many slopes. This crust helps to limit the stress that a rider places on the weak layer buried 1-3 feet deep. Take a look at an illustration showing the stress that a skier exerts on the snowpack here. 

Expect LOW danger to persist until the snow returns. When stormy weather arrives, expect the danger to spike as fresh and wind-blown snow accumulates on a weak layer capping a crust. The resulting avalanche hazard may be similar to the Persistent Slab problem we endured earlier this month. Colorado is currently experiencing elevated avalanche conditions following several weeks of high and dry conditions.  Dangerous avalanche conditions have developed from a mere 6-12" of low-density snow falling on a weak layer. Check out the surprising CAIC forecast here. 

Despite the mid-winter dry spell, local mid-elevation SNOTEL (SNOwTELemitry) stations are doing surprisingly well. Stahl Peak in the northern Whitefish Range and Flattop in central Glacier Park are both above 110% of the historic median Snow Water Equivalent (SWE). Noisy Basin (84%) and Blacktail (48%), not so much. SNOTELs at low elevations continue to struggle, with median values of roughly 34-53%. View the most recent SWE map for northwest Montana here. 

To make yourself feel better about choosing NW MT for the winter, check out this SWE map of the western US here. Ooof, brutal numbers, especially in Oregon, where 67 of the 73 stations report less than 50% median. 

Educational opportunities:

1/29 and 1/31: Ladies human powered Introduction to Avalanches. Find out more here.

2/9 to 2/15: Motorized Level 2 Avalanche Course. Find out more here.

2/21: Human-powered Rescue Refresh Clinic. Find out more here.

2/26 and 2/28: Human-powered Introduction to Avalanches. Find out more here.

Submit your observations for a chance to win an ORTOVOX probe and shovel!

  • Open to all motorized riders (snowmobiles and snowbikes).
  • One obs per day, as many days/month as you can get.
  • Monthly drawing on the first of each month.
  • This month's prizes donated by @JESCOMontana

Regions covered