Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Strong wind and seven inches of new snow has spiked the avalanche hazard today. Wind slabs can be found on easterly aspects, increasing in size and distribution with higher elevation. Above treeline, dangerous avalanche conditions exist. A wind slab avalanche could break up to 2 feet deep and be reactive to skis. Careful snowpack evaluation, mindful route choice, and conservative decision-making will be crucial for mitigating hazard.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Average wind speeds at 8,000 feet have been strong to extreme since 12pm yesterday. The new snow has been quickly moved and loaded onto leeward aspects. Wind slab distribution is specific to S-SE-E aspects, with cross loading possible on SW and NE aspects. Slabs could break up to 2 feet deep, and will be reactive to skis. Near and above treeline, these avalanches could be big enough to bury you. Below treeline, this problem will still exist, but will likely be small and isolated to leeward terrain features.

    (1/6/2024)

    Wind slab below treeline

    Photo: Samuel Clairmont

Avalanche Discussion

Yesterday's system delivered seven to eight inches of low-density snow with substantial wind transport across the forecast area. The wind, kicking in earlier and stronger than anticipated, resulted in strong to extreme northwest winds recorded since noon at Gray Butte weather station. Signs of snowpack instability were abundant, featuring shooting cracks, collapsing test slopes, and visibly wind-loaded areas across all elevation bands on easterly aspects. Forecasters assessed the Green Butte Ridge area, you can find it HERE. 

Today, wind speeds will persist, staying strong from the northwest, limiting visibility, redistributing snow, and maintaining cold surfaces. If venturing near or above treeline, thorough assessment of leeward aspects will be crucial, keeping an eye out for instability. Tread lightly out there. Maintain an avalanche mindset as you step out onto exposed terrain. Near and above treeline terrain have the potential to hold large slabs that could carry and bury you.

When looking for instability, a good place to start is with the 5 Red Flags of Snowpack Instability:

  1. Rapid loading of new snow
  2. Signs of recent avalanches
  3. Collapsing or cracking in the snowpack
  4. Rapid temperature change
  5. Recent strong winds

A big thank you to everyone who came out for the Know Before You Go talk last night!

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