Avalanche forecast

Mt Hood

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The lingering threat of very large natural avalanches drives the considerable danger at middle and upper elevations. Although the likelihood of these avalanches has decreased, the consequence remains high. Reduce exposure to large avalanche paths until the snowpack adjusts to percolating water.

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Mt Hood received 3.3" of water equivalent since early Friday morning with most of that falling as rain. We're expecting at least 1" more of water by mid-day Sunday. Shower activity will rapidly decrease during the day. Even as the rainfall slows, water will be percolating and collecting on crusts within the snowpack. The upper elevation snowpack continues to transition from dry to wet. A very large (D3-4) avalanche reported by seismograph on Friday evening on the Reid Glacier Cirque had a starting zone of around 8000 ft and ran for around 4 minutes. An avalanche of this size would be unsurvivable. While the likelihood of such an avalanche gradually decreases on Sunday, the possibility should make you question your need to travel in terrain connected to very large start zones originating from the upper mountain, particularly during the morning hours. 

    You're more likely to encounter small wet loose avalanches than wet slabs, but these will be somewhat easier to manage. You can trigger them on a steep slope approaching 40 degrees at any elevation anywhere you can sink into the snow past your ankle. These will be most impactful above terrain traps such as rocks, trees, or cliffs. 

    (12/26/2022)

    Wet avalanches can be very destructive. Give slopes capable of producing large avalanches a wide buffer. 

    Photo: Crystal Mountain Pro Patrol

Avalanche Discussion

Heavy rain and high-elevation snow on Friday night through Saturday led to a natural avalanche cycle as rain fell on a previously dry snowpack. Until we are confident that this upper-elevation snowpack has fully adjusted to the water, consider reducing exposure to large avalanche paths and that includes lingering in the major canyons at mid-elevations.

In the last week, we have seen multiple very large avalanches shed off the upper mountain (above NWAC's forecast elevation bands). We're unsure what layers these avalanches failed on, but this extended warm-up with periods of heavy precipitation will continue to test the snowpack. With poor visibility expected, it's essential to know what's above you.  Stick to simple terrain without overhead exposure. You may see little evidence of natural avalanche activity at lower and mid-elevations where wet loose avalanches have already run their course.

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