Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Happy Winter Solstice!  The avalanche hazard is moderate above 2000 feet and low below.  Heightened avalanche conditions exist on specific terrain features.  Human triggered avalanche are possible 1-3 feet in depth.  Instabilities may exist in steep terrain and on specific terrain features that have been loaded by recent wind.  Watch for signs of instability such as shooting cracks and collapsing.  

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Light snowfall is expected to occur today, before tapering off this evening.  North winds have kicked up with gusts of 40 mph at Thompson Pass, although other weather stations remain light to moderate.  North winds are expected to be confined to wind channeled terrain with the strength of these winds diminishing through the day.

    Valdez has recorded snowfall everyday for the last 16 days with 100 inches measured.  Thompson Pass snowfall data is unavailable.  Snow totals over the last 4 days have been mostly moderate with some heavier snowfall occurring in Valdez yesterday (8-10").  Yesterdays heavy snowfall was fairly isolated to town as there were reports that snowfall was much lighter even on the north side of the port and up the road.  Near continous snowfall has been building a right side up snowpack, although expect for instabilities to exist in specific locations.

     The main concern today is instabilities within the new snow in steep terrain and slopes that have been loaded by recent wind, creating deeper storm slabs 1-3 feet in depth that will be more sensitive to human triggers in specific locations.  Winds have shifted to North today creating deeper pockets of wind loaded snow on lee aspect  where wind is present.  Pay attention to wind reditribution patterns in the area you choose to travel.  Avoid freshly loaded slopes steeper than 30°. Test small inconsequential slopes steeper than 30°  to get an idea of how sensitive wind loaded pockets are.

    With multiple rounds of snowfall occurring, it is possible that instabilities exist within the new snow in steep terrain.  Convex features will be the most suspect.

    Wind loaded slopes will often have a pillowed look and may have rippled texture on the surface.  Stiffer snow over soft is a sign of wind loading.  Shooting cracks are a sign that instability exists.

    The hazard is low below 2000' where 4 inches of snow sits on top of a melt freeze crust.

Avalanche Discussion

Since the last major storm cycle 12/11-12 snowfall has continued to accumulate at a  moderate pace with temperatures remaining fairly steady.  There is currently a lot of snow available for transport, allowing for deeper wind loaded pockets to form in areas exposed to wind .  The main concern for today will be these wind loaded area.  Winds have shifted to North today, but were previously blowing from the south east.  Wind loaded storm slabs could exist on a variety of aspects.

Near continous snowfall over the last couple weeks has allowed our snowpack to steadily build.  A lack of clear weather windows has prevented persistent weak layers the oppurtunity to form in the upper snowpack.  The exception to this is the far northern part of our forecast zone where some short periods of clear and cold have occurred, although meaningful facet development has not yet been observed.

Our snowpack is developing well with no major structural issues expected.  Hazard at this point will move in conjunction with snowfall rates and storm totals.  Near continuous snowfall has limited the ability to get a lot of information from upper elevations.  Spend the time to evaluate the snowpack in the area you travel and realize that varying snowfall and wind amounts will lead to spatial variability.  Don't assume that if you find stable snow in one area it will exist everywhere, and vice versa.

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