Avalanche forecast

Seward and Lost Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Yesterday's storm has passed, but conditions may still be reactive today. The fresh wind slabs that formed during the storm are around a foot deep and will likely remain reactive today. These will be most likely in steep terrain near ridgelines, gullies, and convex rolls. Compared to our other forecast zones, we are still operating with a lot of uncertainty in the Seward/Lost Lake area. Keep that in mind today, and consider using a little extra caution while we build a better picture of how the snow is behaving in the area.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

This is a new forecast zone for us. We are excited to gather more information from both our field days as well as from folks out riding. If you get out in the Snug Harbor or Lost Lake areas we'd love to hear what you see. Drop us a quick note or send in some photos on our observation page if you have a minute! If you haven't seen it yet, check out our field day from Friday near V-Max.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    The wind slabs that formed yesterday are probably around 1.5 to 2' deep and will likely remain reactive today. These are most likely to be found in steep terrain just below ridgelines, convex rolls, or in cross-loaded gullies. These will be the kind of terrain features to avoid today. It will be important to travel cautiously and avoid steep wind loaded terrain today. We observed very touchy conditions in the Snug Harbor area as the storm picked up Friday, and the area in general has seen continued loading for the past two days. Conditions are expected to remain reactive today even with the calmer weather we are expecting. 

    The Seward/Lost Lake area should be treated with additional caution right now. With a few exceptions, people have only just started to access these zones and there are a lot of unknowns. Keep this extra layer of uncertainty in mind today, and let us know if you see anything surprising out there. We really appreciate the info we've gotten so far from folks who have been skiing and snowmachining around the area.

    Cornices: Yesterday's windy storm built large and sensitive cornices. Limit exposure to this overhead hazard, and be sure to give them plenty of space if you are traveling along ridgetops.

    Storm totals below begin Saturday evening when the snow started falling. The rain line stayed below around 1000' for Girdwood and Turnagain Pass this time around, and made it up to around 1500' for Summit Lake and Seward.

    • Girdwood: 18" snow/ 1.8" snow water equivalent  (SWE)
    • Turnagain Pass: 19" snow/ 1.3" SWE
    • Summit Lake: 8" snow/ 0.7" SWE
    • Seward/Lost Lake:  12" snow/ 1.0" SWE

    (1/18/2025)

    Looking west of Mt Eva. Photo: Eric Fotter

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