Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Heightened avalanche conditions exist for the possibility of triggering slab avalanches up to several feet thick, where more cohesive snow exists over weaker snow, and on previously wind-loaded terrain. Recent avalanche activity has primarily consisted of small wind slabs and dry loose avalanches, while the last human-triggered persistent slab avalanche occurred on January 18th. Carefully consider terrain consequences and snowpack structure before traveling in avalanche terrain.  You can avoid avalanche problems by riding on wind-sheltered southerly facing slopes.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Slabs up to several feet thick can be triggered where they formed over well-developed facets and collapsible crusts on west, north, and east aspects. Additionally, heavily wind-loaded slabs can be triggered above buried crusts on high-elevation, southerly aspects.  Slab behavior is challenging with variable and deceptive feedback, remote triggering potential, and wide propagation across terrain features.  Sheltered slopes with snow depths around 80 to 120 cm and thin areas in previously wind-drifted terrain appear to be the most problematic. You can reliably avoid the problem on slope angles less than 30 degrees without steeper slopes above you, and most mid to low-elevation southerly aspects lack the problem.  

    Our most recent persistent slab in the Anthracites appears to be triggered by a skier or rider on 1/18/2025.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5

    Periods of blowing snow have been observed for several days. Recent winds have generally been blowing from northwesterly directions. Last night, 12,000ft weather stations recorded average wind speeds in the 20's with gusts into the 30's and 50's. There isn't a large volume of snow available for transport, so any slab formation is expected to mostly be small. Wind Slabs can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas.

    An example of a wind slab that released on the lee side of a terrain feature earlier this month. 

Avalanche Discussion

The most notable amount of accumulating snow was recorded early last weekend, with up to 10" of snow in the NW Mountains and 3" of snow recorded at CBMR. Some additional light snowfall continued to occur on Sunday night. These recent snow accumulations are the fuel for recent wind slab development. This snow has also had some impacts on dry loose avalanches. In some cases, that snow has added a little additional volume to trigger sluffs, while in other cases, it has settled on the snow surface and temporarily decreased how easy sluffs are to trigger. As we progress through the week, continued cold weather combined with clear nights will further facet snow surfaces and keep the potential for triggered dry loose avalanches in steep terrain. 

The persistent slab structure is highly variable through the terrain and from one terrain feature to the next. This is largely due to widespread avalanche cycles that occurred just before Thanksgiving and around the Christmas and New Year holidays. These past avalanches have left behind large variations in total snow depth in avalanche terrain. Where snow depths are shallow, the slabs have faceted away and left weak cohesionless snow, contributing to dry loose avalanche activity. Where the snowpack has become deep, the old persistent weak layers have adjusted to the current weight of the snowpack. Somewhere in the middle is the goldilocks of persistent slab structures that continue to be capable of producing large slab avalanches today. Perhaps conditions are now changing, and those Goldilocks slabs have more to do with previous wind-loading than total snow depth. Either way, the snowpack structure has become complicated, and the areas most likely to trigger are not easily described. That puts the burden on the backcountry rider to continually assess snowpack conditions and not become overconfident if they don't observe any obvious signs of instability.

Wind speeds pick back up again tonight and/or on Wednesday as they back to the west. If there is enough snow left to transport, we may see natural avalanches become possible at above-treeline elevations during that time. 

Regions covered