Avalanche forecast

Elkhorns

Wallowa Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Significant accumulations of new snow accompanied by winds from the south have built wind slabs on NW-E facing slopes near and above the treeline. Heavy snowfall has created sensitive storm slabs near the treeline. You will likely trigger one of these avalanches if you venture onto terrain steeper than 30 degrees. Avoiding avalanche terrain is recommended.

This forecast is sponsored by Brooks Painting. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Southerly winds have built wind slabs near and below ridgelines. Wind slabs, 2-3' thick, are likely to be found on slopes facing NW-N-E.  The effects of recent wind-loading may present as smooth hard pillows lurking below ridgelines or sub-ridges mid-slope, as cornices hanging imposingly over steep slopes, or as stiff punchy windboard.  Look for and avoid steep slopes (>30 degrees) with large overhanging cornices, smooth textured wind pillows, and/or deposition zones with convex rollovers. You may find reactive wind slabs at lower elevations. Be cautious around leeward terrain features mid-slope like sub-ridges and gullies. 

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The Elkhorn Mountains have received 2+' of new snow since Monday. This significant load puts a lot of stress on the snowpack, which, in turn, creates a potential unstable storm slab problem. Near treeline and above human-triggered avalanches are likely. Avoid potential trigger points like convex rollovers, rocky areas or cliffbands, and steep areas beneath cornices.

    On Thursday, forecaster Micheal Hatch found an upside down snowpack on the west shoulder of Gunsight Mountain. The top 8" was denser than the 10" below. This inverted snowpack was likely formed by the strong winds and the warmer temperatures overnight. That top 8" was very touchy and reactive in snowpack tests.  On a north aspect at 7800', he did find a layer of buried surface hoar down about 2 feet.  Slopes that may harbor buried surface hoar are W-N-E aspects near treeline and above. Surface hoar usually forms on slopes more protected from the wind and free of dense trees. 

    We have at least one report of a recent human-triggered avalanche off of Poster Ridge in the backcountry south of Anthony Lakes ski area.  Check out that report HERE. 

    (2/27/2024)

    Human-triggered wind slab on Poster Ridge outside the Anthony Lakes ski area boundary at 8400' on a East aspect. 

    Photo: Jeff Long

Avalanche Discussion

The storm that began Monday 2/26 has deposited 1-3' of new snow across our forecast zones. This storm has been marked by strong winds out of the SE, S, and SW. These winds have moved a lot of snow and built wind slabs on NW through E-facing slopes. Many of these slabs formed on top of a melt-freeze crust. This crust would be an excellent sliding surface for the heavy slab that sits on top of it, all it needs is a trigger. That trigger could be you or the additional weight of the new snow. Avoid traveling on or below wind-loaded slopes.

On slopes not affected by the wind- storm slabs and dry loose avalanches lurk. Reports (3/1) from sledders in the Southern Wallowas indicate heavy sluffing on N-E facing steep slopes. In the Northern Wallowas, ski guides report (3/1) lots of snow moving below the treeline, with storm slabs and dry loose avalanches running on steep unsupported slopes. These observations illuminate a Red Flag, recent avalanches, and tell us we should avoid avalanche terrain until the snow has had time to settle.

In the Northern Wallowas, there are reports of collapsing and recent avalanches. One avalanche reported by a long-time backcountry skier had a crown that wrapped onto Phat Ridge in the Wing Ridge area. Phat Ridge is a common up track. 

In the Western Wallowas (part of the Southern Wallowas forecast zone) ski guides intentionally triggered two small avalanches yesterday (3/2). Both avalanches were on north-facing slopes between 7300 and 7600 (near treeline). You can read the full observation here.

Surface Hoar- When this storm began there was well-developed surface hoar everywhere. This 2/26 layer of surface hoar has been found in the Elkhorns and in the Southern Wallowas. Propagating results were observed in Extended Column Tests on this layer yesterday 50cm down. The Valentine's Day surface hoar was also found yesterday in the Southern Wallowas. While the distribution of these layers is patchy, it does exist and is reactive. This creates uncertainty, you should dig down to look for these layers of surface hoar. If you don't have those snowpack analysis skills you should avoid avalanche terrain where it might live (sheltered northerly slopes steeper than 30 degrees).

Graupel-  This storm has brought a lot of graupel with it. Graupel is small round BB's of snow, it can look like hail.  As you can imagine, a layer of BB's isn't very stable. Storm Slabs were reported failing yesterday on a layer of buried graupel 30cm down. These layers of graupel are another source of uncertainty. When our uncertainty increases, our margins of safety should increase too. Make conservative terrain choices and dig down into the snow to look for layers of graupel which could be the weak layer for an avalanche.

 

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