Northern New Mexico

It is still possible to trigger an avalanche in Northern New Mexico today. The most dangerous slopes are on north and east aspects that saw the greatest amount of loading and were least impacted by the warmup at the end of this past week. These slabs could be dangerous on their own but could also step down into deeper buried weak layers, causing a larger and more destructive avalanche. It is also possible to trigger a persistent slab avalanche on our early season weak layers in places where the snowpack is shallower.  The most likely trigger points are on the margins of a slab and near rock outcroppings. It may not be the first or second person on the slope; it just takes finding that sweet spot where you're able to impact these older weak layers. Today it will be really difficult to find sheltered skiing and riding with strong to extreme winds forecasted all day. Extreme weather like this demands additional safety precautions and wide margins. Please plan accordingly.

It's shaping up to be a rough day out there. 70mph gusts on ridgelines and swirling winds in the canyons are certainly going to make for an uncomfortable and hazardous day in the alpine. It's slightly cooler today, but it's going to feel quite a bit colder with the winds. If you go for a tour, pack extra clothing and supplies, and be ready for a proverbial battle. Also, park further away from trees than normal as today is another potential day for blowdowns. Many of us would probably rather be curling up by a fire and settling in to a Sunday crossword puzzle on a day like this, but I can't speak for everybody. If you decide to head out there and explore, please be extra cautious!

We have a myriad of weak layers at this point in season, and they are present at many different depths thanks to our wind and orographically-driven climate. Near surface facets and faceted crusts formed during the extended dry weather period of the last two weeks, and they pair up with our early-January drought layer and depth hoar in many places. The big question for us as backcountry travelers is whether there is also a slab on top of any of these weak layers. After the warm weather of the past few days, many of the fresh slabs that formed during the last storm are likely to be fairly stubborn, but it's still possible to encounter places where collapsing a weak layer leads to propagation. You're most likely to find this kind of a setup on Northerly aspects near treeline that were loaded during the storm but took in less heat during the warmup. However, avalanches nearer to the surface remain possible on other parts of the compass as well, and it's important to keep in mind how they could impact our older weak layers. Causing a smaller slide close to the surface is an excellent trigger for a larger persistent slab avalanche.

The deeper persistent slab problem continues to remain a concern on many slopes, but particularly where you find an overall shallow snowpack, typically less than 1.5 m deep. Depth hoar near the ground, the early January drought facet layer, and faceted crusts in the middle of the snowpack have been slow to heal and are still within the impact range of a skier or rider on many slopes thanks to all of the wind and dry weather that's been happening. A notable result from explosive control work the other day in steep terrain below treeline produced a size 2 avalanche, and this highlights the issue. It's also noteworthy that many avalanche paths have already slid once and in some cases twice (Peace Sign).  These repeat offenders have a shallower and weaker snowpack and may be more likely to initiate an avalanche. Be mindful of just how variable our snowpack is right now and be wary of trusting a slope until you have a really strong picture of what layers are present and how deep they're buried.

It's a challenging time to be out in the mountains at the moment, but I like to remain hopeful. Yesterday I went skiing just outside of our forecast area in Red River and found surprisingly good conditions in some North-facing glades. In a time when so many of our big, open slopes have been stripped and others have been loaded with complex slab/weak layer combinations, I'm finding that it's a good winter to explore the most sheltered terrain offerings in the region. In the next week we are looking at a couple of weather patterns that could lead to a return of winter. We'll be tracking these systems closely as they develop over the next several days.