Regions
Kootenay Boundary.
Sunny skies and freezing levels as high as 3500 m are continued Wednesday. As the snowpack deteriorates, natural avalanche activity is to be expected. Solar induced wet slabs may be large and run full path.
Confidence
Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain
Weather Forecast
The weather pattern will begin to change tonight as a dominating ridge of high pressure will start to break down. This will allow a strengthening, moist SW flow to enter the region. Wednesday: Freezing levels will continue to be near 3000 m, with sunny skies and light SW winds. Thursday: Light precipitation should begin later Wednesday night, while Thursday may bring moderate-heavy amounts. Freezing levels will fall 1200-1500 m. Ridgetop winds light gusting moderate from the SW. Friday: Lingering, light precipitation through the day. Freezing levels may rise to 2000 m, with possible sunny skies in the afternoon.
Avalanche Summary
On Tuesday reports indicated widespread snowballing up to 2200 m with some natural loose wet avalanches up to size 1.5. On Monday a skier triggered slab avalanche (size 1.5) was reported. This occurred on a North aspect @1900, running 40 m wide and 80 m in length. Other observations from he field have indicated many loose wet slides from steep solar aspects up to size 2. I suspect loose wet, and wet slab avalanches to become a problem through Thursday. The danger ratings will remain elevated as we get hit by moderate-heavy precipitation on Thurs/Fri.
Snowpack Summary
Mild temperatures and spring-like conditions continue. A sun crust exists on solar aspects, while Northerly slopes host dry, wintery conditions down to 1400 m. Below the surface, the upper pack seems to be settling quickly with up to 100 cm of snow overlying the March 26th interface. This interface consists of a melt/freeze crust on all aspects except true north in the alpine, where small surface hoar (5mm) is present in sheltered places. This interface is a concern on true south aspects where the crust is thickest and where the surface hoar lurks. The snow at lower elevations has become moist and heavy during the warm sunny days. The persistent early February surface hoar lingers deep in the snowpack and may re-awaken with forecast skyrocketing freezing levels and mod-heavy precipitation on Thursday. Concern remains with heavy triggers (cornice), step down avalanches and rapid loading from intense precipitation, strong winds or sun.
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Wet Slabs
Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.