Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Amid recent wind slab formation, the avalanche danger remains moderate at and above treeline. Backcountry travelers are urged to carefully assess snow conditions at mid and upper elevations (i.e., above ~11,000') before stepping out into steep terrain. Travelers should exercise heightened caution below steep loaded ridgelines, gullies, and convex rolls and retreat if any instability is observed. Although we are nearing April, the snowpack is atypical and reflects a mid-winter snowpack, requiring a more watchful eye.

As a reminder, our avalanche center is a nonprofit and supported by the local community. Remember to show your support by entering our online Arizona Snowbowl Season Pass Raffle and coming out to support KPAC next Saturday (4/6/2024) on the Agassiz Lodge deck for the Mikee Linville Fundraiser.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Strong west-southwest and south-southwest winds have recently transported snow to leeward slopes and terrain features, maintaining the moderate avalanche danger. This month, backcountry travelers have triggered several wind slab avalanches; we have been fortunate that these events have occurred on small test slopes or remotely and did not catch or carry any backcountry travelers. Backcountry travelers should carefully assess or avoid loaded starting zones, wind drifts, mounds of snow, pillowed areas, and cornices while traveling in avalanche terrain. One way to assess these instabilities is through small and inconsequential test slopes, which can be invaluable in assessing the reactivity of wind slabs on specific aspects and around terrain features.

    Moreover, it is imperative for travelers to consistently employ appropriate travel techniques aimed at minimizing risks to themselves, their party, and other individuals in the vicinity. These measures include only exposing one person at a time to avalanche terrain while skiing and while egressing. Likewise, skin tracks and egress routes should aim to utilize local terrain features to minimize the likelihood of triggering an avalanche.

    (3/28/2024)

    Current conditions within the Humphreys Cirque. Note the snow transport occurring on the ridgeline and filled-in tracks in the middle of the image that were from the previous day.

    Photo: Blair Foust

Avalanche Discussion

Stability tests and observations have noted increased stability and lower propagation propensity than last week; however, the possibility of triggering an avalanche remains. Our snowpack continues to grow with the recent snowfall and is expected to accumulate further with incoming storms. Currently, at the SNOTEL site in Snowslide Canyon, we are at 155% of the median snow water equivalent. In addition, we are over a week past the average point when our snowpack begins to melt. Fortunately, that is not the case this year, and it appears there are at least a few powder days left. However, with this bonus comes increased avalanche danger. Keep a watchful eye, and don't let spring lull you into a false sense of security.

Recent snowpits can be found at https://snowpilot.org/snowpits/query?field_loaction_tid=4

Come join Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center on Saturday, April 6th, at the Agassiz Lodge deck for the Mikee Linville Fundraiser!  All proceeds from this event go to our scholarship fund, which, to date, has resulted in over 29K of scholarship benefits!  For more information on how to get involved, visit kachinapeaks.org.  Many thanks to everyone who made our avalanche courses a success this season, and a big thank you to all our participants! KPAC is especially grateful to our generous community. Your support makes avalanche forecasting and education possible in Northern Arizona. 100% of KPAC's funding comes from fundraisers, donations, and grants - your contribution matters!

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