Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche danger will rise to CONSIDERABLE today on all aspects. On steep slopes that face W-N-SE new and wind drifted snow will increase the likelihood for deep and dangerous, human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer. Avoid all slopes steeper than 30 degrees with these aspects. In all other areas, avalanches involving the new snow will become increasingly more likely as the day progresses. Suspect any slope that has more than about 8" of new snow and look for signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface. Backcountry travelers need to have excellent route finding and snow stability analysis skills out there today.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    3

    New and wind drifted snow will add stress to buried persistent weak layers in the snowpack increasing the likelihood for deep and dangerous, human triggered avalanches. In some areas we may even see some natural activity although I don't think we are going to get enough of a load for a full cycle. Regardless, travel advice is to avoid all slopes steeper than 30 degrees that face W-N-E. Stay off of and out from under steep slopes in these areas.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    As new snow accumulates the likelihood for human triggered avalanches will increase on all aspects. Signs of instability include cracking in the snow surface and blocks of snow between your skis indicating that a slab has formed. On southerly aspects the new snow may not bond well to slick crusts underneath. Utilize test slopes on these aspects and look for signs of instability before committing to steeper terrain. On northerly facing slopes, new and drifted snow will increase then likelihood for deeper and dangerous, human triggered avalanches. All, steep, northerly aspects should be avoided.

Special Announcement

Road Conditions: The Geyser Pass Road will not be plowed today and it's going to get sporty.

Grooming: Trails will be covered in fresh snow.

Snow and Weather

6:00 a.m. Snow and Weather Data

24 Hour Snow 5" 72 Hour Snow 5" Season Total Snow 100" Base Depth at Gold Basin 42"

Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: SE 15-25 G35 Temp 28˚ F

Weather

A warm atmospheric river is feeding moisture into the region with heavy snowfall expected through the day. Winds from the SW will blow in the 15-20 mph range along ridge tops, and high temps will be in the upper 20's. Snowfall should continue through tonight with 12"-18" possible when it's all said and done. Light showers may linger into tomorrow with sunny skies on Sunday. Another system is shaping up for mid-week.

General Conditions

Powder skiing will be the order today. Look for developing slabs within the new snow on all aspects, and increasing avalanche danger as the new snow piles up. The new snow will also begin to stress buried persistent weak layers again increasing the likelihood for triggering a deeper and much more dangerous avalanche. You know the drill, the danger will be greatest on steep, northerly aspects and these slopes should be avoided.

Snowpack and Weather Data

Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')

Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')

SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')

Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')

NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.

Additional Info

Want some more insight into the La Sal Mountains as well as the communal impacts of a tragic avalanche? Check out the latest UAC podcast with forecaster Eric Trenbeath where he discusses the range, it's often treacherous snowpack, and how the devastating avalanche in February, 1992, affected the Moab community.

Our avalanche beacon checker sign and beacon training park are up and running. A huge thanks to Talking Mountain Yurts for sponsoring those this season!

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General Announcements

This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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