Avalanche forecast

Togwotee Pass

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
No rating
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions exist - primarily at upper elevations.  Recent snowfall and winds have formed wind drifts and added weight to weak layers buried in the snowpack making it possible to trigger a large destructive avalanche. Intense sunshine today will increase snow sensitivity and could produce small wet avalanches at lower elevations. Sticking to gentler slopes sheltered from the wind will help reduce your risk. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Wind slabs 2-3 feet thick exist on all aspects at upper elevations, and west through north through southeast aspects at middle elevations. Watch for signs of wind-affected snow such as pillows, drifting, and stiffened surfaces. You are most likely to encounter wind slabs around ridgelines, rocky areas, and cross-loaded terrain (gullies and roadcuts). Cracking and collapsing are sure signs of unstable snow. These avalanches have the potential to step down and trigger a larger persistent slab avalanche. Travel in sheltered terrain to steer clear of this problem. 

     

    (3/1/2024)

    Human-triggered cornice fall along a ridgeline at ~9000' in Ditch Creek. 

    Photo: Cameron Galt

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    As we move into a period of stable weather, the snowpack will continue to stabilize. Today, the recent weight of new snow is still stressing buried weak layers making it possible to trigger a large avalanche on all aspects and elevations. You will most likely trigger a persistent slab avalanche where the snowpack is thinner - particularly around steep, rocky, and wind-affected terrain (This recent large avalanche from the Tetons demonstrates all the suspect terrain features). If triggered, slabs could be 3-4 feet thick and potentially step down into layers closer to the ground. Previous tracks on slopes do not indicate stability. Watching for signs of unstable snow, such as cracking or collapsing, and checking snow depth will help with your decision-making process. Riding on lower-angle slopes will help you stay away from this problem. 

    (3/3/2024)

    A large natural avalanche on the Whale's Back of East Angle. 

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Yesterday's sun and low winds allowed surface snow to start heating on southern aspects. Cold temperatures overnight refroze any wet snow, but with another day of intense sunshine and calm wind expect snow surfaces to warm by afternoon. Triggering one of these slides is most likely on steep rocky terrain directly facing the sun. Monitor the snow surface as you travel - look for roller balls, pinwheels, and wet snow (easy to make a snowball). While these avalanches will be small, they easily can push you off your feet making them dangerous in consequential terrain. The onset of wet avalanche activity can be sudden. Pay attention to signs of warming and minimize time spent lingering on or under steep, sunny slopes. 

Avalanche Discussion

In December we asked ourselves "Where is all the snow?". Well, all that snow arrived fashionably late in February and early March. Our snowpack has made a significant transition to a more typical mid-winter status where new snow problems are the primary avalanche problem. As more storms roll through the forecast zones, persistent weak layers are buried deeper and deeper making it difficult for riders to trigger directly. The persistent weak layers can be triggered through other means. Significant loading events, cornice falls, and smaller slab avalanches all can impact buried weak layers. As we move into a short period of stable weather, reactivity will decrease but uncertainty will increase. It's easy to say avalanches will happen when lots of slopes are avalanching. The days following a storm, when activity decreases, is when it becomes more challenging. This recent observation gives me pause to think about my terrain choices today. Continue to monitor the snowpack and watch for signs of instability. Use extra caution in traveling into more extreme terrain. With clear skies and lots of snow, riding conditions will be excellent. It will be a good weekend to get outside and enjoy our mountains. 

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