Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Last week's snow rests on top of facet and faceted crust layers that formed during the January dry spell.  At upper elevations on northerly through east aspects is where you are most likely to trigger a persistent slab avalanche.  Use caution on slopes steeper than 35 degrees where you find a stiffer more cohesive slab, paying attention to obvious wind drifted pillows that may feel hollow. These persistent slab avalanches could break wider than you think and be over 2 feet deep.  Evaluate snow and terrain carefully, identifying features of concern.

With warming temperatures and sunny skies, we may see small wet loose avalanches on solar aspects as the day warms up.  Watch for pinwheels and rollerballs as these are indications that the snow surface is becoming wet and saturated. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Periods of strong to moderate winds at upper elevations have helped stiffen last week's snow into more cohesive slabs that rest on top of facets and faceted crusts that formed during January's high-pressure period. Use caution of slopes steeper than 35 degrees, paying attention to a stiffening in the surface that may feel hollow, produce shooting cracks or loud audible collapses.  This will most likely be on leeward sides of ridgelines and in cross-loaded terrain at upper elevations on northerly to east aspects.    A persistent slab avalanche has the ability to propagate wider than you think and could be large enough to injure or bury you.   

    Above treeline, where recent winds have created stiffer slabs is where you could possibly trigger a persistent slab avalanche

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    With warm temperatures forecasted over the next several days, it's a good idea to start thinking about wet snow avalanches.  Lower elevation slopes that are directly in the sun will quickly heat up and become wet and saturated on the surface as temperatures warm later in the day.  Watch for clues of wet loose snow instabilities like rollerballs and pinwheels.  You can head to shadier aspects to avoid this problem.   

Avalanche Discussion

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A dry NW flow will bring warming temperatures and sunny skies over the next several days.  Temperatures today should climb into the 30's and 40s and possibly get into the 50s on Monday at 9000'.  Warm temperatures and our strong southern latitude sun here in NM will bring an increased threat of wet snow avalanches over the next several days.  Our next storm system is still on tap starting Wednesday as we see a pattern shift bringing better chances of snow potentially through the end of February.

Overall generally safe avalanche conditions exist on most slopes throughout the mountains and skiing and riding conditions have remained fantastic. In recent travels, the faceted weak layers that formed on the surface or around crusts prior to last week's storm are still widespread, but most slopes do not have a cohesive slab on top able to communicate propagation across a slope.  It's on these slopes that we are getting ECTN or long cut lengths on PSTs.  There are however upper elevation slopes that have stiffer cohesive slabs from moderate to strong winds over the last week.  These are mostly found on northerly and east-facing terrain.  These are stubborn slabs, as we are getting them to fail and propagate with hard force, but are enough of a concern that Moderate danger exists on these above treeline slopes.  Taking the time to dig a quick pit is a great way to identify if the slope you plan to play on has this slab/weak layer combination.   

 

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