Avalanche forecast

Galena Summit & Eastern Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Triggering an avalanche large enough to bury you is likely on many slopes. Slides that fail at the base of the recent snow will involve 1-2 foot thick soft slabs. Much larger avalanches involving very dense hard slabs can break 2-4 feet beneath the snow surface and send the majority of the season's snowpack downslope. Both types can be triggered from long distances away from the slope that avalanches. Loose snow avalanches will be easy to trigger in sheltered terrain and may occur naturally where the sun is warming up and melting the new snow this afternoon. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Today's 1-3 inches of fresh snow will add to the 5-15 inches that fell at the end of the week. You can expect to find a wide range of problems involving this recent snow. These broadly fall into two categories:

    SLABS: Periods of shifting winds have built several generations of wind slabs at the surface. Look for drifts, dunes, and rippled snow surfaces as an indication that the wind has been at work, but expect much of this evidence to be masked by today's snowfall.  Cracks shooting out from your skis or machine are a clear sign that you've found an unstable slab that could be triggered on steeper slopes. Even in terrain that is apparently sheltered from the wind, you can trigger slabs that fail at the base of the February snow (see photo at right/above). The variable layers of weak snow that are generating this problem appear to be at their worst where either sun crusts or rain crusts exist at this interface. Read more about the budding persistent slab problem in the Forecast Discussion below. 

    LOOSE SNOW: In terrain sheltered from the wind, expect small loose snow avalanches to be easy to trigger. If you're seeking out cold, crust-free snow on northerly aspects these sluffs will have a dry character. On slopes where the sun is warming up and melting the snow surface this afternoon, these loose snow slides will have a wet character. If you're finding moist/wet snow at the surface or if you are seeing wet balls of snow rolling down the slope this type of slide is coming onto the menu. Loose snow slides will start out small, but can pick up steam and run quickly thanks to the stiff and crusty surfaces underneath the recent snow. 

    Avalanches involving the new snow will range from small to large enough to bury you. Avalanches failing near the surface can be effective triggers for avalanches that fail on the deeper weak layer described above. 

    This large avalanche was remotely triggered by skiers near Dollarhide Summit on Friday. It failed on an E/SE-facing slope at 9,100'. Based on the appearance of the slide, it likely failed on a weak layer that was buried at the beginning of February. 

    Photo: Sun Valley Heli Ski

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Under the recent storm snow, you will find thick, very dense slabs resting uncomfortably on layers of very weak snow. This combo has produced dozens of recent avalanches in this zone. Many of these slides have been large enough to snap mature trees and destroy large vehicles (see photo at right/above). If you dig down, you'll find thick piles of facets with or without surface hoar on shaded aspects, and crust+facet combinations on slopes that get more sun. Recent avalanche activity has been much more widespread on shady slopes, but a few large avalanches failing on slopes that face the sun indicate that this problem exists in those areas as well. 

    Because the slabs on top of this weak layer are so dense, and the new snow is so soft and fluffy, you aren't likely to encounter many or any signs of instability before triggering a large, potentially unsurvivable avalanche. Keep this weak snow at the front of your mind when you are moving through the mountains. The only guaranteed way to avoid this problem is to steer clear of avalanche terrain and slopes threatened by overhead hazard. Any avalanche that fails on this weak layer will be large and destructive, and slides can be triggered from long distances away (remote triggering).

    This very large avalanche on Galena Peak failed naturally sometime between 2/9 and 2/10. The crowns span 2,000 feet of terrain and the slide ran over 1,000 vertical feet. The majority of the slope that avalanched faces NW. 

Avalanche Discussion

A DEVELOPING PERSISTENT SLAB PROBLEM

We are snow detectives. A large portion of our job is looking for and finding patterns in the snow, and then describing these patterns to you. We have a budding persistent slab problem in our region currently, thanks to layers of weak snow buried by February storms. Unlike the deeper weak layer that is creating the widespread Persistent Slab problem described above, these weak layers don't appear to be as uniform. They are weak enough to produce large avalanches in some places, but they show signs of decent bonding in other places. At this point, these layers appear to be at their worst on slopes with thin crusts accompanied by facets. Avalanche activity has been focused on slopes that get direct morning and evening sun ("solar margins", slopes facing E-SE and WSW-W). A widespread rain crust that extends to above 10,000' exists at this interface as well and has produced collapsing and unstable snowpack test scores. The slab on top of these weak layers is growing with each storm.

Here is a short list of some of the relevant evidence pointing to this developing persistent slab problem:

Dollarhide remotely triggered avalanche - A large avalanche was remotely triggered by the professionals at Sun Valley Heli Ski on Friday (photo here). It broke several hundred feet wide on an E/SE facing slope at 9,100'.Profile drainage natural avalanche - A large natural avalanche was observed in the Profile drainage yesterday (photo here). It broke several hundred feet wide on an E/SE facing slope at 8,500'.Parks Peak natural avalanche  - A very large natural avalanche was observed on Parks Peak that likely failed at the tail end of the storm on Thursday on a SE-facing slope at 10,000' (photo here).Banner Summit area -  View my observation from Friday of collapsing and unstable snowpack tests involving this weak layer here.Durrance area natural avalanches - Very wide crowns involving this weak layer were observed adjacent to avalanches that failed on deeper weak layers following storms earlier in February.  

And here is a quick video from yesterday discussing this developing issue.

Snowpack complexity has been steadily increasing in the past two weeks. With this complexity comes uncertainty and unpredictability. Travel through the mountains thinking about new snow problems, our "old friend" the January 6th weak layer, and these emerging persistent slab problems. As complexity increases so does our uncertainty. The snowy world becomes less predictable and we are forced to build broader safety margins to deal with this uncertainty. Enjoy today's storm and this afternoon's sunshine, but don't ignore the fact that you are playing in a dangerous, increasingly difficult-to-predict world. 

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