Avalanche forecast

Lutak

Haines Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

The avalanche danger isMODERATE above 1,500ft. Strong northerly outflow winds have tapered off after four days. Expect to still find slabs 1-3' deep over a hard crust in specific terrain. A sharp temperature rise today could increase the sensitivity for human triggering. Identify slopes greater than 30 degrees that could slide and practice safe travel techniques to limit your exposure. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    We should treat buried weak layers as guilty until proven innocent, which involves slope-to-slope assessment. After a blast of northerly outflow winds, and a natural avalanche cycle last weekend, it is uncertain what buried weak have been re-loaded, what layers failed, and whether or not they were wiped out. A high degree of uncertainty requires wide safety margins.

    Known buried persistent weak layers included melt-freeze faceted layers, buried surface hoar, buried near-surface facets, and depth hoar. Last Sunday freezing levels increased to 3,500-4,500ft forming the "January Pineapple Express" (JPE) melt-freeze crust that was promptly buried the next day by 2-3ft of snow at upper elevations and then re-loaded by the W-NW-N winds.

    What is dangerous about persistent slabs and requires extra caution is the potential to propagate an avalanche from a thin area of snow to a deeper one that fails on buried weak layers across the terrain. Wind scouring and wind loading may have brought weak layers closer to the surface, or added stress via wind loading. Avoid high-consequence run-out zones and terrain traps.

    (2/3/2024)

    Poor structure with strong over weak layering in the Lutak Zone. In this area the snowpack had high strength although well-preserved buried surface hoar was found at a layer interface down 30cm.

Avalanche Discussion

The snowpack does not like rapid changes. A strong northerly outflow event brought W-NW-N wind through the region from Jan 31st-Feb 3rd. This was accompanied by another sharp drop in temperature with a maximum low of -15F at the Haines Pass. Another flip-flop weather event on Sunday will bring a sharp temperature increase. Look for signs of instability including cracking, collapsing, whumping, and natural avalanche activity.

Last weekend, we got walloped by a two-pulse late "January pineapple express" event with ~6" total SWE (snow water equivalent.) During the first wave, Jan 26-28th, 2-3" of SWE fell as temps climbed, with freezing levels peaking up to 5,000'.  In part two of the event on Monday, Jan 29th, there was another 2-3"+ of SWE, but in 24 hours, and colder with 2,500-3,000' freezing levels and moderate to gusting strong S-SE winds.

Above-freezing temperatures spiked on Sunday, Jan 28th, in the evening, where some slopes had avalanches occur on persistent layers- including the large, D3.5-sized avalanche at the 21-mile Haines Highway. When the weather picked up again on Monday, strong winds and snow above 2,500-3,000' covered and reloaded start zones. This blend of events makes mapping the distribution of avalanches difficult, bringing uncertainty to where persistent layers remain. 

Other layers to note are from earlier this season: faceting from cold, northerly outflows, and melt-freeze layers throughout the snowpack.

  • Cold temperatures most of January faceted and accelerated the weakening of persistent snow grains throughout the snowpack: at the surface, below wind slabs, near melt-freeze crusts, and on the ground, especially in areas with a shallow snowpack. We should treat these layers as guilty until proven innocent and continue to monitor, track, and assess stability on a slope-by-slope basis. Melt-freeze crusts are a dangerous weakness in a snowpack and have played a role in multiple avalanche accidents, even within our forecast zones.
  • The melt-freeze crust of most concern is the EOY (End Of Year crust.) What we know about the EOY crust is that above-freezing temperatures  ~3,000ft- 4,000ft on December 30th caused the formation of a thick ( 1" +/-), widespread melt-freeze crust down 20-50cm. The strength of this layer and its thick and thin variability depend on the duration and intensity of the warm and inverted EOY event. The cold weather in mid-January faceted and weakened snow around the crust. The "late-January pineapple express" had avalanches that released EOY instabilities in some areas but inconclusive in others.

The people you go out with, how you communicate, and how you practice risk reduction as a team throughout the day are equally important as the conditions. The wide propagation and dangerous nature of persistent slabs are best mitigated with safe travel techniques and terrain management- only exposing one person to a slope at a time, avoid grouping up in run-out zones, and re-consider islands of safety to truly limit your group's exposure. 

Help us gather information about weather, snowpack, and avalanche activity by reading and submitting field observations. Useful observations can be anonymous and include: 

  • Avalanche Activity: Natural or human-triggered
  • Signs of Instability: Cracking, collapsing, or whumping
  • Red Flag Weather: Precipitation, wind loading, warming temperatures and rain-on-snow
  • Persistent Weak Layers: Surface hoar growth, snow depth, persistent weak layers, etc
  • Snow Pits: Stability test results, layers of concern, total snow depth, location, elevation, aspect, etc 

Were you caught, carried, injured, or buried in a slide? We are all human and can benefit from lessons learned. Please report incidents to Haines Avalanche Center staff confidentially.

 

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