Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Strong winds and new snow have created dangerous avalanche conditions near and above treeline.  Newly formed wind slabs at these upper elevations rest on top of smooth crusts and are now buried near-surface facets that formed during the two weeks of dry weather before this latest storm. Watch for obvious wind-drifted pillows, smooth or rounded surfaces that will change in stiffness underfoot.  Avoid steep slopes where you find more than 8 inches of drifted snow, These wind slabs will be dangerous on their own but can also step down into deeper weak layers creating a much larger and more destructive avalanche.   

You can also trigger a persistent slab avalanche on deeper buried weak layers where the snowpack is shallower.  This will be found in likely trigger points on the margins of the slab and near rock outcroppings.  Sticking to wind-sheltered lower-angle terrain without steep slopes above you will provide safer skiing and riding options today.  

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    New snow and very strong winds have created wind slabs at upper elevations.  These slabs could grow to be 2 feet thick at upper elevations on the leeward sides of ridgelines and in cross-loaded terrain features. With such strong sustained winds yesterday and our Box Canyon effect, expect to find slabs in unusual places, like further down the slope and mid-path. These slabs are forming on a variety of different surfaces from crusts to near-surface facets and most likely will not be bonding well to the existing snow surface.  Wind slab avalanches could be dangerous on their own breaking widely across slopes and terrain features, but could also step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger and more destructive avalanche.  Watch for obvious wind-drifted pillows, stiffening of the snow surface and shooting cracks off your boards, or loud audible collapses.  Avoid steep slopes where you find more than 8 inches of newly drifted snow.  Wind slabs may have also formed in open and exposed areas below treeline.  

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Snow and wind have loaded slopes and are stressing deeper buried weak layers, that could become more reactive and struggle to handle this rapid loading.  In shallow snowpacks (<1.5m) before this storm, depth hoar, the early January facet layer, and faceted crusts continued to remain weak and slow to heal.  These weak layers had been mainly lying dormant during the latest two-week dry period but should become more reactive with this latest load and slab formation.  It will most likely take you finding a shallow spot on the slope near a likely trigger point on the margins of the slab or near rock outcroppings to trigger a persistent slab avalanche or triggering a wind slab on the surface that then steps down into deeper weak layers.  These avalanches could be very large running well into the flats below and most likely not survivable.  

     

    Shallower snowpack <1.5m on a northwest aspect near treeline.  Weak layers closer to the ground have been slower to heal and continue to remain reactive in PSTs.  Near-surface faceting on the surface will become a problem with slabs developing on top of this layer from this storm.

    Photo: Andy Bond (2/23/2024)

Avalanche Discussion

Yesterday's storm underperformed for snow totals but made up for it with very strong winds throughout the day.  It's difficult measuring snow totals during windy storm events but the Powderhorn snotel site is showing 8 inches of snow with 0.8" of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE). At Poco Gusto hand measurements are showing 7 inches of snow with 2" of SWE.  Yesterday, winds were in the 30 mph range with gusts in the 60's.  Travel and visibility were not great yesterday, with winds easily transporting snow to what felt like Oklahoma. Pine bows were thrown about everywhere as well as downed trees.  Due to limited visibility there is still some uncertainty as to how much snow and what the distribution was like at upper elevations, but I'd imagine that it was significant in places, while stripped and scoured in others. Temperatures this morning are in the single digits and winds have calmed down in the 10 - 20 mph range with gusts in the upper 20's.  With rapid warming today and intense sunshine, wind slabs may become more reactive this afternoon.  

Newly formed slabs are resting on crusts and near-surface facets that formed during the close to two weeks of warm and dry weather that preceded this latest storm. Solar aspects of west, south, and east formed stout crusts on the surface. These crusts will provide a good bed surface for storm slabs to run on.  Below treeline and wind-sheltered northerly terrain had widespread near surface faceting that made for good skiing, but will now be a widespread easily collapsable weak layer.  Above treeline, strong winds last week created wind-pressed surfaces and breakable wind crusts.   

With each significant loading event this year, we've seen our persistent weak layers become more reactive and have had natural avalanches. We'll see how our deeper buried weak layers fare with this storm but if the forecast does verify and we pick up over an inch of water, I suspect we could see some natural avalanche activity with smaller avalanches stepping down into deeper weak layers.  Like the avalanches we saw during the last storm on Feb 7th these avalanches could break widely across slopes and fail on weak layers near the ground taking with it most of the season's snowpack. There is also some uncertainty with avalanche paths that have already slid this year.  Many avalanche paths have already slid once and in some cases twice (Peace Sign) this year.  These repeat offenders have a shallower and weaker snowpack and may struggle to handle this rapid loading with shallower buried weak layers.  

North and East aspects near and above treeline, pose the greatest hazard right now as they have seen the greatest amount of loading from the strong winds and new snow. With sunny skies and warming temperatures, it'll be tempting to want to chase powder. Go in with a conservative mindset, identifying areas that are wind-loaded and avoiding them as the snowpack will need time to adjust to this latest round of loading.  Wind-sheltered lower-angle terrain will provide safer skiing and riding options.  

 

 

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