Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The overall danger remains MODERATE. Deep and dangerous human-triggered avalanches remain possible on steep slopes that face W-N-E-SE. The danger is most prominent on slopes that face NW-N-E. You are most likely to trigger an avalanche in thin snowpack areas. You can reduce your risk by avoiding steep, rocky areas and slopes with complex terrain features.

Strong southerly winds have produced stiff slabs of wind-drifted snow above treeline where it is possible to trigger small avalanches on slopes that face W-N-SE.

A generally LOW danger exists on slopes facing S-SW.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    3

    Persistent weak layers (PWL) of faceted snow that formed in November and December remain our primary concern. We saw widespread natural avalanche activity on these layers between Fec 2-8. The likelihood of triggering an avalanche on a deeply buried PWL has decreased significantly, but it is still possible. We are now in a low likelihood, high consequence scenario. If you are stepping out into avalanche terrain, evaluate each slope on an individual basis. Aim to ride in areas with a deep snowpack. Avoid steep, rocky terrain, thinner areas along slope margins, and steep, blind rollovers or convexities. These are all likely trigger points.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Strong southerly winds mid-week blew and drifted snow into shallow stiff slabs, primarily on upper elevation, northerly facing slopes. Some cross-loading may have also occurred on slopes facing W and SE. These will be more stubborn to trigger today but keep an eye out for smooth, rounded areas of wind drifted snow, or hard surfaces that sound or feel hollow underneath. On northerly aspects, winds slabs have developed in precisely the same areas where we have our persistent weak layer problem, and these slopes should be approached with extra caution. Avoid, areas of steep, rocky, complex terrain where a triggered wind slab could result in a much deeper and more dangerous avalanche.

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Road Conditions: The Geyser Pass Road is plowed but snowpacked and slick!

Grooming: LUNA last groomed Gold Basin through Geyser Pass and set classic track on Sunday.

Snow and Weather

6:00 a.m. Snow and Weather Data

24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 1" Season Total Snow 132" Depth at Gold Basin 49"

Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: NW 10-15 Temp 10° Percent of Normal: 100%

Weather

Today, we'll be under the influence of dry, northwesterly flow. Look for sunny skies, light winds from the NW, and high temps in the low 30's. More of the same on Saturday with slightly warmer temperatures. Look for increasing winds on Sunday as the flow shifts to the SW ahead of a somewhat promising looking period of stormy weather Mon-Tues.

General Conditions

Nothing new to report. Exposed southerly aspects are stripped and scoured while cross-loading and blowing have affected slopes facing W-N-SE. Mid and low elevation, sheltered, northerly aspects harbor the best chances for finding decent snow. Near and above treeline, stiff slabs of wind drifted snow mid-week formed primarily on northerly aspects. They'll be more stubborn today, but unfortunately exist on the same slopes where we have our lingering persistent weak layer problem. The likelihood of triggering a deep avalanche down into weak, faceted snow has decreased significantly, but keep the odds in your favor by avoiding areas of steep, rocky, radical terrain, or slopes with complex terrain features. Thinner snowpack areas remain suspect where your weight can much more easily affect the weak layer. Pull out your shovel, or simply probe around. I'd personally like to see close to 200 cms of snow before I'd feel good about skiing something steep.

Although this messaging may grow tiresome, the threat remains real. Over in the San Juan Mountains of Colorado, where they have a similar snowpack, folks continue to trigger dangerous avalanches failing on deeply buried faceted weak layers including this avalanche that caught and buried two people.

Check out this video Dave made for a discussion of our current, "Low probability - high consequence" scenario.

Snowpack and Weather Data

Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')

Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')

SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')

Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')

NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.

Additional Info

Want some more insight into the La Sal Mountains as well as the communal impacts of a tragic avalanche? Check out the latest UAC podcast with forecaster Eric Trenbeath where he discusses the range, it's often treacherous snowpack, and how the devastating avalanche in February, 1992, affected the Moab community.

Our avalanche beacon checker sign and beacon training park are up and running. A huge thanks to Talking Mountain Yurts for sponsoring those this season!

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General Announcements

This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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