Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The avalanche hazard is moderate at all elevations.  A small amount of new snow along with increasing winds will make human triggered avalanches possible less than 1 foot in depth. Although unlikely, deeper more destructive avalanches could be triggered in isolated areas. Natural avalanches are unlikely.

Avalanche forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday at 8 am. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Newly formed shallow wind slabs will be the primary avalanche concern today. Our area received only a trace to 4 inches of new snow, but north winds are expected to increase through the day and become very strong by this evening. Small wind slabs, generally less than 1 foot deep, will form on lee slopes and around terrain features. These slabs may be sensitive to human or machine triggers, especially where drifting is most pronounced. Because there is limited snow available for transport, this problem is expected to remain relatively shallow and pockety.

    Use extra caution in terrain traps such as gullies, creek beds, and confined features where even a small avalanche could have serious consequences. Watch for signs of recent wind loading and pay attention to how much new snow is available for transport. Cracking in the snow surface will be a clear sign that wind slabs are reactive.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–3

    We continue to track the 1/26 persistent weak layer that is found around 2' below the surface. Triggering this layer now appears unlikely. We have received very little snowfall in the last month to add stress to it, and in many places it is capped by very hard wind slabs that make it difficult for a person or snowmachine to affect.

    Still, persistent weak layers are unpredictable, and isolated trigger points may remain. We will keep this problem on the list because sensitivity could increase again with significant new snow later this season. Avoiding large connected alpine faces and complex terrain remains the best way to reduce risk.

    HS-N-R2-D3-O

    Natural persistent slab avalanche on Averys/SW that failed at a PWL on 2/20 and ran full path ~3800'.

    Photo: Gareth Brown

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2.5–3.5

    Weak snow near the ground is increasingly common as you move North through our forecast zones, with the Continental zone being the most concerning. Although it still remains unlikely to trigger this layer, areas that have been scoured from strong northeast winds now have a shallower snowpack, making this layer closer to the surface and potentially easier for a rider to trigger.

    This is a low-likelihood but high-consequence problem most likely to be triggered in steep, rocky terrain and areas where the snowpack is thin or scoured. Triggering this layer directly is unlikely at this time, but avalanches that start in the upper snowpack could step down to the basal weak layer.  There is a high degree of uncertainty regarding the poor structure at the base of the snowpack.  

    (2/25/2026)

    Deep slab natural avalanche on The Wall / north/~5800'.  Failed sometime in mid February

    Photo: Jed Workman

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche activity in the last 72 hours:  None

Forecast Discussion

Another round of light snowfall followed by strong winds over the next couple of days will add a fresh layer of wind slab to an already wind-damaged snowpack. After a month of dry, cold, and windy weather, we are left with a thin and highly variable snowpack. While there are still several weak layers in the snowpack, the lack of meaningful snowfall over the last month has limited stress on these deeper layers and reduced their sensitivity. Triggering a deeper avalanche remains a low-probability, high-consequence problem.

For more information regarding our snowpack, see our Season summary, Observations, and avalanche activity sections.  

Regions covered