Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
No rating
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Highlights

There are two concerns in the Summit Lake area. The first is the lingering possibility of triggering an avalanche where recent winds have blown snow into stiffer slabs up to a foot deep that may still be reactive today. The second is triggering a larger avalanche failing on weak snow buried up to 2 to 3' deep. Both of these avalanches are most likely to be found above 2500' in steep, wind loaded start zones.

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Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    After a wet and wild week, the weather is starting to quiet down, and the avalanche danger is doing the same. However, we still have very limited information following the holiday storm, so steep terrain should be approached strategically today. This means assessing the snowpack in the area you are traveling- looking for clear signs of unstable snow like recent avalanches, shooting cracks, or collapsing. It can also be a good opportunity to use small slopes to test for surface instabilities before moving into bigger terrain.

    We are expecting a few more inches of snow with some wind transport during the day that will make for a fresh batch of smaller, but more reactive wind slabs. There are likely isolated upper-elevation slopes where a layer of surface hoar was buried over the past week that may still remain reactive today. Keep this in mind as you travel, and consider using lower-consequence terrain until we are able to gain a little more insight into the sensitivity and distribution of this potentially bigger problem.

    Cornice Fall: The heavy precipitation and strong winds over the past week have built large cornices that are releasing naturally. These have the potential to trigger avalanches, and some are large enough on their own to be a major concern. Be aware of this additional hazard as you travel near ridgelines, and be sure to give them a wide berth since they have a nasty habit of releasing much further back that one would expect.

    (12/26/2024)

    Predicted snow totals through tomorrow morning. 

    Graphic: NWS Anchorage

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Although the little extra snow we receive today is unlikely to do much to increase the danger, we are still concerned with the possibility of triggering a larger avalanche failing on one of the multiple weak layers buried in the Summit Lake snowpack. These layers are slowly gaining strength, but there is still a lot of uncertainty as to how sensitive they are. The most likely place to trigger a larger avalanche on one of these layers is steep, upper elevation terrain that was loaded over the past few days. These layers can be very challenging to assess, so the best option in these cases is to avoid those big connected start zones, as well as any terrain with higher consequences like trees, rocks, or gullies at the bottom.

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