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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 29th, 2017–Mar 30th, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Storm slabs are expected to continue to be reactive, and we may see some natural avalanche activity if the sun comes out. Deep persistent avalanches are more likely if we see strong solar radiation.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Thursday

Weather Forecast

Overnight: Another 3-5 cm with strong westerly winds and freezing levels at 1300 metres by morning. Thursday: Mix of sun and cloud as the ridge of high pressure builds on the coast and moves inland. Chance of some convective flurries, with daytime freezing up to 1800 metres. Friday: Mostly sunny with light winds and daytime freezing up to at least 2100 metres. Saturday: Unsettled with flurries or light snow, not much of a re-freeze below 2000 metres. Westerly winds developing during the day.

Avalanche Summary

Storm slab avalanches up to size 2.5 were released by explosives on Wednesday, as well as skier controlled loose wet and storm slab avalanches to size 1.5. Looking ahead, a significant concern is the potential for large deep persistent slab avalanches triggered by natural triggers such as a cornice fall. See the forecaster blog for advice on managing avalanches that are not likely, but if they are triggered, are almost unsurvivable. See (here) for details.

Snowpack Summary

25 cm of new snow overnight and another 10 during the day on Wednesday have developed storm slabs in the alpine that are 30-50 cm thick near Fernie. In the Corbin area, there was a total of 25cm in the last 24 hours. Storm snow is not bonding well to crusts in the alpine and at treeline. Below 1600 metres the snow is moist or wet. Deeply buried facets may spring to life due to the added load of the storm slabs, and the possibility of strong solar radiation over the next couple of days.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.