Today, MODERATE avalanche danger exists across mid and upper-elevation terrain, with the main concerns being persistent weak layer avalanches on east, north, and west-facing slopes, as well as recent slabs of wind-drifted snow.
MODERATE danger also exists on low and mid-elevation slopes facing southwest through southeast, where warming could lead to wet-snow avalanches on solar aspects.
Careful snow and terrain evaluation is crucial, as human-triggered avalanches remain possible.When in doubt, sticking to terrain under 30° will lead to both safer travel and the softest turns.
Elevated winds continue to form wind drifts on all aspects at mid and upper elevations. Cornices have grown large and may break farther back from ridgelines than expected. With warm temperatures on the horizon make sure to give them a wide berth.
Any avalanche involving wind-drifted snow could step down to a buried persistent weak layer.
If the sun comes out in full force and temperatures rise above freezing, the mid and lower elevation snowpack outside wind-affected areas may become saturated, increasing the risk of wet snow avalanches.
Avoid being under avalanche terrain on mid and lower slopes, especially during the heat of the day.
A mix of buried persistent weak layers makes for a complex and variable problem. Avalanches failing on buried facets are more likely in thin, rocky areas and terrain that slid earlier this season - referred to as repeater slopes. These facets near the ground were responsible for the recent avalanche on Ant Knolls in the Northern Provo Region.
We're also seeing avalanches breaking at the new/old snow interface, acting more like persistent weak layer avalanches in the mid-elevations. In some cases, the only way to identify this weak layer is by digging and performing a stability test. If you hear collapsing on any aspect or elevation, it's a clear red flag—stick to lower-angle terrain.
This buried weak layer isn’t done yet. Late February usually brings a shift in mindset toward spring conditions, but this season is different. Give the snowpack time to settle.
Video (Drew and I) discussing the recent rider triggered persistent weak layer avalanche from Ant Knolls.
There are still reports coming in from last week's avalanche cycle and our recent observations page has all the updated details. UAC forecasters went to check out recent close calls from over the weekend. You can check out the updated avalanche reports from Ant Knolls and Mt Aire; HERE, and HERE.
This morning, under clear skies, temperatures range from the low 20s at trailheads to the upper teens at ridgetops. Winds are northwesterly, averaging 5-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Overnight gusts peaked near 50 mph but have been steadily decreasing since midnight. If any snow swirled around last night, none of it stuck.
Today will be mostly sunny with clear skies. Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 30s. Northwest winds will stay breezy through the morning before tapering off—averaging 5-10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph at mid-elevations and 15-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph at ridgetops.
This weekend could bring a bit of light precipitation from a cutoff low, but a stronger storm looks likely early next week. Timing is still uncertain, but projections show it arriving early Monday and lasting through Wednesday morning, with the heaviest snowfall expected in the first half of that window. Forecasts suggest a wide range of possible totals, from 0.40 inches of water in a drier scenario to 3.00 inches in a wetter one. With that much variability, it’s a storm worth keeping an eye on. After days of warm temperatures and overnight refreezes, the snow surface has taken a beating. Expect a firm crust on most aspects and elevations this morning.
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
