Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions continue to exist at all elevations. Cohesive slabs rest on top of very fragile, persistent weak layers that formed during the long dry period from November through January. Continued widespread cracking and collapsing shows how close we are to triggering avalanches. Increased winds today will continue to load slopes at upper elevations and help stiffen slabs at upper elevations. If you trigger a slab that breaks near the surface, there a chance that it could step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche. 

Avoid being on or connected to slopes steep than 35 degrees. These types of conditions also lend themselves to remotely triggering avalanches from the flats below or adjacent slopes. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Friday's storm added significant weight (1.2-1.4" SWE) to our weak, shallow snowpack and faceted weak layers and depth hoar are struggling to adjust to this added weight. Winds increased overnight are expected to continue to ramp up today which will bring added loading to slopes. Cracking and collapses continues to be widespread in travels, and stability tests are failing with easy force. Take the time to dig down into the snow to see if this strong over weak snowpack layer exists.   North and East aspects contain the most abundant weak snow, in addition to the typical West-facing terrain along the Fraser-Wheeler ridgeline.  Not that many slopes ran naturally on persistent weak layers during the storm, which means many of them are now primed for a little extra oomph in the form of a skier or rider.  Expect persistent slab avalanches to break deeper in the snowpack and in some cases near the ground, where they'll take will take with them most of the season's snowpack. 

    Loud audible whumpfs or collapses and shooting cracks are indications you've found this strong over weak snowpack structure. These conditions lend themselves to remotely triggering avalanches. Avoid being underneath steep slopes above, as it's possible to trigger avalanches from long distances away.  

    North aspect below treeline. ECTP2 on depth hoar.  You're likely to trigger persistent slab avalanches on slopes greater than 35 degrees that hold a slab.

    Photo: Charlie Harrison (2/15/2025)

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    W/SW winds are on the increase today with gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range. Recent snow can be transported or pressed into stiffer more cohesive slabs near and above treeline. Over the past several days surface slabs have been failing at the old/new snow interface as well as on a graupel layer that formed during last Friday's storm. Graupel tends to pool below cliffs and gentler terrain further down from ridgelines.

    Look for obvious signs of wind-drifted snow on leeward terrain features, such as textured surfaces or rounded pillows of snow.  Wind slabs may feel stiffer or sound hollow underfoot as you travel over them.  These types of avalanches will be dangerous on their own but could also step down into deeper weak layers, creating a one two punch and producing larger more destructive avalanches.

    Shooting cracks off your tips and stiffening snow underfoot are indications you've found a wind slab.

    Photo: Charlie Harrison (2/14/2025)

Avalanche Discussion

Temperatures this morning are in the teens and winds are in the 20 mph range with gusts at 40 mph. Winds are expected to increase today, with gusts approaching 50 mph. Overhead clouds and moderate winds should help keep some of the warming at bay today, but temperatures are expected to climb into the low 40's around 9000'.  

Last Friday's storm was not a big showstopper for snowfall totals (6-8 inches), but delivered a pretty significant test from water weight (1.2-1.4" of SWE The biggest storm of the season for SWE since early November). Strong winds during the storm at all elevations helped build stiffer, more cohesive slabs on the surface that sit on top of a very weak faceted depth hoar snowpack that formed during the November- January dry period. The added weight along with cohesive slabs on top have given us this poor snowpack structure of strong over weak and are severely testing our persistent weak layers deeper down in the snowpack. 

If you've taken the time to get off the skin track or the well-packed in trail, it should be pretty obvious that we have an unstable snowpack right now.  Widespread collapsing and cracking has been almost constant on most slopes that face the northerly and east part of the compass. Natural avalanches (D Size 1 - 2) during the storm have mainly been confined to below treeline terrain on northerly aspects, where the fragile depth hoar below couldn't handle the added load. On east and west aspects (that had connected snow on them prior to the storm) Melt-freeze crusts from the record-breaking warm temperatures to begin February are faring better at handling the added weight for natural activity, but more than likely will just take you as a rider to get those weak layer to collapse. The same can be said at upper elevations, where strong winds for almost a week prior to the storm pressed the snow into hard slabs that new snow was loaded onto. 

The question going ahead for the rest of the week that sees smaller storms (Tuesday and Friday) but moderate to strong winds, is how much weight can these weak layers handle? I'm suspecting not that much more. Whether that's wind loading or new snow, we should see a bit of loading each day over the next week. 

Dense heavy snow has made travel a lot easier, but if you've been out an about the last couple of days it should be pretty obvious that the mountains are talking to you about the avalanche conditions.  Constant collapses and long propagating shooting cracks and natural avalanches should make it obvious that we have dangerous avalanche conditions out there. It's easy to get lured into steeper terrain right now, as we haven't had much powder to ski this year. Try to fight that urge and stick to lower angled terrain.   

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