Avalanche forecast

Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

You're most likely to trigger a large avalanche on steep slopes facing the northern two-thirds of the compass, especially in the southern part of this zone where the snowpack is less deep. Natural avalanches involving the new snow are possible today. Watch for and avoid fresh, stiff wind drifts throughout the zone.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Wind Slab: Isolated wind slabs up to 2 feet thick formed in recent days. The slabs could rest above weak crust and facet combinations on southerly aspects or small sugary facets on more north-facing slopes - this could make avalanches both easier to trigger and wider than you might expect. You're most likely to find the slabs immediately beneath exposed upper elevation ridgelines and on the sides of cross loaded gullies.

    Loose snow avalanches: If you're playing in very steep terrain, expect to trigger sluffs involving the recent 8-16" of snow that has fallen over the past few days. Be aware of where a smaller avalanche may take you and avoid riding in avalanche terrain above terrain traps such as gullies, creeks, and thick timber. Avoid spending time below large cliff faces and very steep chutes and couloirs. 

    *These new snow avalanches may "step down" into deeper buried weak layers (problem #2) resulting in much larger avalanches.

    (2/15/2025) This natural wind slab avalanche released naturally on Feb 14 or 15 in the Goat Ck drainage. SE aspect near 10,000'. The slide may have been triggered by cornice fall. It appeared to involve the snow that fell on Feb 13-14. 

    Photo: Sawtooth Avalanche Center

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–2.5

    Although the slabs that formed in early February seem to be stabilizing, they rest above a variety of ugly, widespread, weak layers (facets, surface hoar, crusts, and combinations). The steady stream of snowfall has kept the chance of triggering deeper slides possible.

    Before triggering an avalanche, you may or may not experience obvious signs of instability like snowpack cracking and collapsing or whumpfing. Persistent Slabs can release in surprising ways and break much wider than expected. You are most likely to trigger a dense, 2-4 foot thick avalanche where:

    • A smaller wind slab or loose snow avalanche overloads the buried weak layers (problem above)
    • Any part of the slope you are on or connected to is steeper than about 35 degrees
    • The slope faces the northern 2/3 of the compass
    • The slab is less than about 3' thick—relatively shallower spots may exist where the wind frequently blows, and the slab is not uniformly thick.

Avalanche Discussion

The northern and western corner of the Sawtooth and Western Smokys zone is expected to receive nearly double the snowfall of the rest of the rest of the region. All that snowfall, in addition to consistent WNW winds today, will quickly build reactive wind slabs and keep loose snow avalanche hazard heightened. Triggering one of these new snow avalanches is probably the easiest way to awaken the dragon and trigger a deeper, larger persistent slab avalanche. Be on the lookout for wind-affected snow surfaces and think about the consequences of getting caught in one of these wind slabs or loose snow avalanches.

A generally deep and continually stabilizing snowpack exists throughout much of this zone, so be extra cautious if you're finding a more shallow snowpack where buried weak layers may be more easily affected by your sled, skis or snowboard. These thinner areas exist in the southern and eastern edges of the zone (such as the Smiley, Frenchman, and Headwaters drainages).

Regions covered