Avalanche forecast

Olympics

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

New snow and a weak underlying snowpack may make for tricky and ultimately dangerous avalanche conditions on Saturday.  Tread carefully near wind-loaded slopes where large avalanches are more likely.  If you see new avalanches, natural or human-triggered, retreat to lower angle slopes sheltered from overhead exposure to avalanche paths. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    This may not be your usual post-storm day - avalanches may be easier to trigger and break more widely than you expect, with a large variation in how easy it is to trigger avalanches across the terrain.  Higher elevation slopes where the winds have drifted new snow will be capable of producing larger and more consequential avalanches.   Tread carefully.  New avalanches - natural or human triggered will be the clear message to avoid steep open slopes in nearby terrain and reduce your exposure to large avalanche paths that start higher in the terrain.

    Handpits, and small test slope results should not be used to deem nearby slopes safe due to the variability in the old snow surface heading into this storm cycle.  You're going to have to constantly re-assess the snow stability as you change aspects at middle and upper elevations.  Don't immediately jump on steep open slopes without first gathering information. 

    Lower elevations saw warmer temperatures and rain up to 4000-4500' on Friday and are less likely to have surviving weak snow layers or significant new snow avalanche concerns.  

    (1/31/2025)

    Touchy test slopes in the Baker backcountry, with 6-16" crowns that propagated widely. 

    We may see similar conditions in the Olympics this weekend. 

    Photo: Pete Durr- USFS Backcountry Ranger

Avalanche Discussion

January ended on a wet note, the opposite of what was a remarkably dry month.  Around a foot or more of new snow should have accumulated above 4500-5000' by the end of Saturday in wind sheltered terrain, with lower new snowfall totals below 4500'.  This new snow will be resting on a variety of old snow surfaces; crusts of varying thicknesses and old weak snow (facets and surface hoar).   This setup has everyone throughout the region on edge for what may be a tricky and sensitive snowpack that could be with us for awhile.  As we incrementally load the older weak snow surface (the 1/31 interface), we may reach a tipping point where avalanches become more likely and harder to manage safely. 

Prior to this storm in the Hurricane Ridge area, a stout ski-supportable crust could be found on steep southerlies. On shady aspects, a skiff of weak snow could be found over a breakable crust.  Older glide cracks opened up during warmer periods during January.  The new snow should help fill these gaps and generally improve travel overall, but be aware of a range of travel hazards, including stumps, rocks, glide cracks, open creeks, etc that may be lurking under the new soft snow. 

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