Avalanche forecast

Stevens Pass

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The deep snow is beginning to settle out, but still has a ways to go. Shallow wind slabs could be reactive at higher elevations. Some chances remain for triggering a large and deep avalanche on deeply buried crusts and facets facing the north half of the compass. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Most places hold deep, cohesionless powder, but you may find some areas with slightly stiffer snow. Look and feel for signs of drifting such as pillowed snow, cornices, and sculpted features near ridgelines, especially in exposed alpine terrain. Wind direction has been flip-flopping back and forth from east to west, so you could find slabs on any aspect. Use small test slopes and snowpack tests to determine if the new snow is cohesive or if it could break as a slab. 

    The potential for triggering deeper, surprising avalanches on older layers of crusts and facets is unlikely, but is not null. This 'sleeping dragon' may stay asleep for now, but it should be in the back of your mind before entering big or consequential terrain. Large, steep slopes that face NW-NE above 4,700ft may be the most likely places to trigger this deeper weak layer. If triggered, the crown could be 3-6ft deep and the resulting avalanche could be quite large. 

    Heed signs of danger such as shooting cracks, loud audible whumphs, and pay attention to signs of recent avalanches as you travel in this relatively young snowpack 

    (11/30/2022)

    Fairly wide, natural slab avalanche in the Baker Backcountry on Wednesday. Photo: Lee Lazzara

Avalanche Discussion

Stevens Pass picked up about 2 feet of snow with only around 1.6" of water since the recent pattern started on 11/29. The snow is deep out there, but has begun to settle out some. Small loose avalanche smay also run on very steep slopes. With the deep snow in mind, make sure to stay within earshot or visual of partners. Tree wells are getting deeper, so with this in mind, make sure to stay within visual or easrshot of your partners. It's still early season, and the snowpack may be hiding sharks and stumps to get injured on.

Layers of weak snow and slick crusts were buried by a series of storms in mid to late November. These have not been a problem for avalanches in this zone (but is in the East Central) since their initial burial. However, because of their persistent nature, professionals continue to closely monitor this layer as more and more piles up above it. Explosive testing on a few slopes on Wednesday produced minimal activity, but that doesn't mean we can 'ski it if it's white'. On Tuesday, observers within the boundaries of Stevens Pass resort found two northerly slopes that harbored weak, larger (1.5mm) facets near the ground. A couple profile sites done in different areas by different people showed unstable test results. This is good evidence that this layer could still produce avalanches. The distribution of this layer is variable in nature, and other observations report it as stronger snow or melt forms.

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