Avalanche forecast

Tetons

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

You may find wind slabs, possibly a foot thick, in isolated terrain in the lee of northwest and westerly winds.  These are likely to be soft and may remain reactive to triggering. Additionally, deeply buried weak layers continue to create an unlikely chance of triggering a 3-5 foot thick slab in steep, rocky and wind-affected terrain. The unlikely potential to trigger a large avalanche keeps our avalanche danger Moderate today. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Winds have been variable until yesterday when they became more consistenly from the northwest. New, thin slabs did not appear to bond well, particularly on solar aspects and may remain reactive today. Look for the typical signs of wind drifted snow in the lee of terrrain features, pillows beneath ridgetops or snow piled up beneath steep, rocky areas. 

    (1/23/2023)

    This wind slab avalanche in Crooked Thumb Basin entrained a larger amount of new snow and traveled over consequential terrain. This illustrates the importance of choosing terrain wisely with both wind slab and persistent problems. 

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    Deeply buried weak layers continue to be a concern in steep, rocky areas that make it more likely for a skier or rider to trigger a thinner spot in the overlying slab. Consider strategies to avoid thin spots if you enter consequential terrain. Probe, dig or otherwise be aware of terrain factors that make it more likely find and trigger a thin spot. Triggering is unlikely for numerous reasons but remains a concern. The storm arriving this weekend will give this layer another test, especially if wind loading occurs.

     

     

    (1/20/2023)

    Snow pit on Prospector's Peak showing moderate strength (ECTP14) and continued sensitivity on facets buried Nov. 27th. 

Avalanche Discussion

BTAC forecasters continue to monitor the evolution of the snowpack, particularly the facets and crusts from Nov 27 that were responsible for the few larger avalanche occurances this season. The stubborn slab above this layer is doing a fine job bridging across most terrain and otherwise protecting that layer from collapsing, so much so that you might not even know the layer is there unless you dig a deep hole or probe. If you are planning to step out into more consequential terrain today, remember that a stubborn avalanche problem still has a sweet spot somewhere. Gabrielle summarized the location where triggering through the variable thickness snowpack is "most possible" in yesterday's forecast: a) steep terrain, b) ranging on the southern half of the compass, and c) wind-loaded slopes. Carefully assessing these types of slopes increases your odds at avoiding trouble in these areas where avalanches are "most possible."

Significant snowfall arrives this weekend bringing more water weight, step-down potential and slab tearing potential from surface slabs. Should be interesting to see how it plays out....from a lower angled pow run. 

Regions covered