Avalanche forecast

Salt Lake

Issued Jan 1, 2023valid to Jan 2, 2023Utah Avalanche Center

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Avalanche danger

Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline

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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS

The avalanche danger remains HIGH today on many slopes of the mid and upper elevations. Natural and human triggered new snow or wind-drifted snow avalanches are likely. On northwest through easterly facing aspects, avalanches may step down into older weak layers, leading to large and destructive avalanches.

Travel Advice: Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended. I would also avoid traveling beneath large avalanche paths as well.

The danger in some parts of the Provo mountains remains EXTREME.

Avalanche problems

Persistent Slabs
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Likely
Size
3
This is - again - a significant loading event for our buried weak layers from November. These layers are buried deeply in the upper reaches of the Cottonwoods and may be more prone to triggering in terrain north of BCC: along the PC ridgeline, Mill Creek, and other shallower areas. I believe the Reynolds and Freds avalanches support that theory. That said, any new snow avalanche may step down into older layers. These avalanches will be most problematic on northwest to easterly facing aspects of all elevations, but we cannot rule out the other aspects at this time. Tread carefully - these are unsurvivable avalanches. Cracking and collapsing will probably not be noted; best to follow the travel advice for HIGH - avoid all avalanche terrain.

TREND: Same
Storm Slabs
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Very Likely
Size
2
Continued heavy snowfall will increase the avalanche danger today on all aspects and elevations. I expect rising sensitivity and size of both soft slab avalanches and dry loose avalanches within the new snow of all aspects at the mid and upper elevations. Any new snow or wind drifted snow avalanche may step down into older weaker layers, resulting in a larger, more dangerous avalanche.

TREND: Increasing
Wind Slabs
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Likely
Size
2
Sensitive soft slabs of wind blown snow will be found on steep slopes of the mid and upper elevations. With shifting winds, all aspects of the mid and upper elevations may harbor soft slabs of wind blown snow. These can be found well off the ridgelines and around other terrain features. Cracking is a clear sign of instability. Avoid steep terrain with fresh wind drifts.

Any new snow or wind drifted snow avalanche may step down into older weaker layers, resulting in a larger, more dangerous avalanche.

TREND: Decreasing

Avalanche Warning

THE FOREST SERVICE UTAH AVALANCHE CENTER IN SALT LAKE CITY HAS CONTINUED A BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WARNING WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY 6AM MST TO MONDAY 6AM MST...

* WHAT...The avalanche danger is HIGH across northern, central, and southwest Utah. The danger has reached EXTREME in some parts of the Provo area mountains.

* WHERE...For most mountains in Utah and southeast Idaho, including the Wasatch Range, Bear River Range, Uinta Range, Manti-Skyline, Fish Lake Region, Pavant Range, Tushar Range, and Cedar City area mountains.

* WHEN...In effect from 6AM MST this morning to 6AM MST Monday

* IMPACTS...Very dangerous avalanche conditions exist. Natural and human triggered avalanches are likely on many slopes and may be triggered at a distance. Stay off of and out from under slopes steeper than 30 degrees.

Recent Activity

Natural avalanches are running now in the steepest avalanche paths of the mid-canyon in LCC and the canyon is closed for mitigation work.

Yesterday's activity included widespread new snow and soft slab avalanches in the wind drifted snow. Of greater interest were two reports of (likely) natural avalanches that failed down deeply into the old November PWL of faceted grains.

Reynolds East face: 9300' East facing 3-4' deep 300' wide
Fred's Birthday Chutes: 9000' East facing 4' deep and 250' wide

party investigating the Reynolds avalanche, pc: Selzman

Snow and Weather

WOW.

2022 went out like a lion and 2023 has picked up where 2022 left off. It's still snowing and avalanches are occurring as I write at 530AM.

Happy New Year.

Overnight snow totals are 8-12" in the Cottonwoods and along the Park City ridgeline with 0.8-1.0" SWE. Winds are southwesterly, blowing 20-30mph with gusts to 40. The highest anemometers are spinning 30mph with gusts to 60. Mountain temps have slowly warmed overnight....and are in the mid to upper 20s.

Storm totals thus far:

Upper LCC: 24"/1.75" SWE
Upper BCC: 20/1.90" SWE
Park City: 16"/2.0" SWE
Ogden mountains: 20"/2.77"
Provo mountains: 42"/7.67" SWE (That is not a typo)

Snow stakes now sit at 90-110" in the Cottonwoods and 70-80" along the PC ridge. 70-80" in Ogden, 75-85" in Provo. Amazing.

Snowfall will be heavy at times today arriving on a southerly flow. Winds will diminish and continue shifting counterclockwise with the storm moving overhead. Temps will be in the mid 20s, cooling to the low teens by tomorrow. Snowfall should continue tonight through tomorrow with another 12-18" expected. Unsettled Tuesday with shortwave ridging mid-week. Return to an active westerly flow by late week.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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