Avalanche forecast

East Cabinet Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Although wind slabs are becoming less reactive with each passing day, it is still likely you will trigger a wind slab in steep and open terrain at Treeline and above. Strong winds and recent snow have created dangerous avalanche conditions this past week. You can avoid triggering an avalanche today by choosing lower angle terrain (less than 30 degrees).  Terrain that is sheltered from the winds will have the safest riding and the best snow conditions today.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Recent snow that fell on Monday and Tuesday has been pushed around by strong north-easterly winds and formed cohesive slabs of snow in open terrain on all aspects and elevations above 4,500' roughly. Slopes below ridgelines, chutes, and steep, open terrain are the places where triggering an avalanche will be likely today. The most dangerous locations will be south and west aspects, particularly above treeline where the snow is deep and the winds are strong. Wind slabs below treeline will be a concern only in large and steep openings at elevations roughly above the 4,500' mark. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Facets above the January 13th rain crust are still showing signs of weakness at upper elevations on aspects with a thinner snowpack.  On Thursday we were still seeing propagation in this layer on a southerly aspect at 5,300' of elevation. On north and easterly aspects this layer can be found, but is not showing much potential for failure. With cold temperatures present this weak layer will continue to remain a problem. In most locations, it is buried approximately 2 feet below the surface and will have enough volume to kill or injure a person if triggered. Triggering this layer is a low-likelihood, but high consequence scenario. Avoid large open slopes that have a thin snowpack, this will minimize your exposure to this problem.

Avalanche Discussion

Another storm is predicted to enter the area Sunday morning bringing 3-8" of snow and gusty winds out of the southwest. Anticipate the potential for surface conditions to change with new wind slabs likely developing on north and east aspects Sunday and Monday. The weather forecast looks to remain active this week with multiple pulses of snow predicted and a return of more seasonal temperatures.

This past week on the Kootenai we have seen a roller coaster ride of weather conditions. On Monday Nate travelled into the West Cabinets and was rained on at lower elevations. The storm eventually transitioned into snow with cold temperatures and winds switching to the north. On Wednesday I was able to sneak into the East Cabinets and found some bitter cold conditions and moderate winds out of the north at upper elevations. Wind slabs were forming and becoming reactive under skis while travelling on all aspects in open terrain. Snow conditions consisted of 4-5" of low density powder on a firm base up to around 4,500' roughly, at that point the snow starts to get deeper and wind slabs become more prevalent and reactive.  South and west aspects were being loaded by the north-easterly winds and easily triggered near ridgelines. Thursday we venutured up to the Idaho/Montana border country south of Trout Creek, MT and north of Kellog, Idaho. We found similiar conditions, although it was colder and the winds had increased on Thursday. The wind slabs were becoming thicker and more dangerous. We were able to easily trigger small slabs on road cuts with our machines that propagated in the new snow where affected by the winds. On Friday, observations from forecasters and field technicians across the IPAC forecast area reported that much of the new snow was impacted by the wind, with scouring and slabby surfaces present.

I will wrap this up with a short and simple take-home message for the weekend. The current snowpack is dangerous in steep and open terrain; but, there is some great riding out there in sheltered timber. Choose to ride in lower angle terrain sheltered by the trees and you will avoid avalanches while having a pretty good time.

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