Avalanche forecast

West Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

You could find some wind-loaded slopes as you ascend in elevation on Thursday. Avoid features that look “fat” compared to the surrounding terrain, especially on steep convexities or near confined rocky gullies. If the winds pick up in the afternoon, you could even find some fresh slabs to manage by day’s end.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Continue to keep an eye out for Wind Slabs near ridgelines, on convex features, or near rocky terrain such as the base of cliffs or confined gullies on Thursday. These could be lingering from Monday’s storm, or in the northern half of the zone you might find some small fresh slabs in the afternoon hours. Regardless of their age, they should be stiffer than the surrounding snow and the old ones could even feel hollow. Feel for changes in the consistency of the snow as you travel to help you identify the areas we’re concerned about. Wind-loaded features may look “pillow-like” or “fat” compared to the surrounding terrain and you might notice some textured surfaces nearby. If you suspect a slope to be wind-loaded, steer around it by choosing lower-angled terrain.

    (2/15/2023)

    Small, snow-machine triggered avalanche (likely 1-2 days old) on a steep, wind-loaded feature in the neighboring West North zone. [Mt. Baker NRA].

    Photo: Irene Henninger

Avalanche Discussion

As we distance ourselves from our last major storm on Monday, we find ourselves in a bit of a transition period Thursday. Fresh storm snow should continue to settle and stabilize, while sunny weather will start to dissipate. We dropped the Wet Loose problem we’ve been running the past few days during the predominantly pleasant weather. This decision wasn’t made without hesitation, however. Thursday should be the warmest day of the week, but breezier and cloudier. These weather influences combined with the fact that sunny slopes have already had a chance to avalanche the past 2 days led us to drop the problem.

Observations from the region indicate generally quiet avalanche activity on Wednesday with only a few Wet Loose avalanches reported. Evidence of recent wind effect was reported in most zones west of the crest, including the neighboring West North, Stevens Pass, and Snoqualmie Pass zones.

Any avalanche you do encounter on Thursday should be confined to the recent storm snow above the 2/13 interface. The depth of this layer may vary from north to south, but in general, expect to find it 1 -1.5 feet below the surface. We expect that it possesses a favorable bond. Slopes that see direct sunshine will likely contain a surface crust while shaded slopes hold cold dry storm snow. 

That said, in both the neighboring West North and Steven’s Pass zones, there have been recent avalanches triggered on deeper layers in the snowpack when we were not expecting them. Take this information with you as part of your trip planning and consider taking a look for deeper instabilities in the snowpack before stepping into consequential terrain at upper elevations.

Regions covered