Avalanche forecast

Maritime

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired last year. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche hazard is Moderate at all elevations.  Avalanche concerns involve old wind slabs and shallow storm slabs.  Human triggered avalanches are possible up to 1 foot in depth.  Natural avalanches are unlikely.

Avalanche Forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday at 8am

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    There is a lot of variation in the snow quality/ condition with changes in elevation, aspect, and forecast zone.  There is also variability in the #1 avalanche problem that a user could encounter with wind slab and storm slab being at the top of the list, but neither one screaming for the #1 slot and depends on location.  

    Starting with storm slab, this problem is the most likely to be encountered if you are traveling in the Maritime zone.  8 inches of new snow have been recorded at the Sugarloaf snotel, with another trace expected in the early afternoon.  Since this snow has fallen within the last 36 hours, bonding with the old snow surfaces may not be complete.  This can create instabilities at the new and old snow interfaces.  Winds have ticked up slightly out of the south, which creates deeper pockets of new snow that will be more sensitive than areas unaffected by wind.  New snow is accumulating on buried surface hoar that has been observed in specific locations up to 3800'.  Buried surface hoar has the potential to act as a weak layer in our snowpack in specific locations once it is sufficiently buried. At this point, observations have shown this weak snow to exist on the north side of Thompson Pass and has not yet been found in the Maritime zone.

    As you move North from the Maritime zone new snowfall amounts quickly decrease to 2-4 inches on Thompson Pass and only a trace at 46 mile.  These lower snowfall amounts shift the focus from storm slabs to old wind slabs on Thompson Pass and North.  The last week of weather has been typified by light rounds of snowfall and periods of clearing with light to moderate winds blowing from mutiple directions.  Shallow instabilities created by wind loaded snow have been observed lately in isolated areas.  These have been found to be less than 6 inches deep and still show some reactivity.  Adjust your assessment to what avalanche problem exists in the area you choose to travel.  Where more than 8 inches of new snow exists, pay attention to how well it is bonded to old snow surfaces by using hand shear tests and small inconsequential test slopes .  Where new snow is shallower, look for visual clues of wind redistribution and target test slopes that look likely to accumulate wind slab.

Avalanche Discussion

Observed Avalanche Activity last 72 hours: 

None observed or reported

Forecast Discussion:

Observations over the last week have found a stable snowpack on shaded aspects above 3000' in the majority of areas.  The hazard level remains at Moderate due to spatial variability (conditions differ from place to place) through our three forecast zones.  Multiple small waves of snow and periods of clearing generally lasting less than 24 hours has created this variability.  Some areas have received higher amounts of snow from these waves while others have received more wind in specific areas.  This has created a scenario where shallow instabilities (less than 6") have been observed in isolated locations.  Human triggered avalanches are possible 6-12 inches in depth in terrain steeper than 35°.  A slope by slope assessment is reccommended if traveling in steep terrain.

New snow is falling on Surface Hoar in some locations up to 3800'.  Buried surface hoar is a weak variety of snow grain that once sufficiently buried can allow instabilities to persist much longer than your typical storm slab.  At this point, new snowfall totals are minimal in areas where this layer was observed to be the most prominent.  It is unlikely that this layer is a current concern, but could become one with incremental loading .

Wet loose avalanches will become possible on steep low and mid elevation solar aspects in areas that are receiving direct sun.  A wave of cloud cover that is expected to roll in from the coast along with colder temperatures will lower the likelihood of this problem being widespread today.

Below 3000' the snowpack structure is not as strong.  Various rain crusts have been found to be losing strength at low elevation .  This poor structure has not yet produced any avalanche activity, but is worth keeping in mind if travelling in steep, consequential terrain at low elevations.  

Additional Information:

Observations from steep upper elevations of the far northern end of the Continental zone are limited.  These areas typically harbor a weaker snowpack, however this has not been confirmed.

A weather and snowpack season history is available by clicking on the Season Summary tab which is located below the bottom line statement once you have entered the full forecast.

Season Snowfall Data

Location 24 hour Snowfall Inches- 3/13 24 hour Snow Water Equivalent Inches Height of Snow March Snowfall Inches Season Total Snowfall Valdez    1    N/O    44     6 N/O     Thompson Pass    2    N/O   N/O     6    ~500 Nicks    1    N/O    143    5 N/O 46 Mile    0     0   22    4 N/O

Regions covered