Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Impactful overnight weather has created hazardous avalanche conditions. Human-triggered avalanches remain likely in areas with wind-deposited snow near and above treeline, and on convex slopes steeper than 30 degrees. Signs of recent avalanches, actively blowing snow, and cracking underfoot indicate unsafe conditions. Stay vigilant, adopt an assessment mindset, and use cautious travel techniques to minimize your exposure today.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    Today, the backcountry is primed for wind slab formation. A large amount of snow is available for transport by moderate wind speeds. Expect the most consequential wind deposits on all east and north aspects, near and above treeline where existing drifts will be further loaded. These avalanches could be large enough to injure, bury, or kill. As winds shift from southwest to northwest, cross-loading may create deposits on northwest, west, and southwest aspects, primarily above treeline.

    Terrain features like ridgelines, rock outcroppings, chutes, and gullies are most susceptible to wind slab formation. Terrain selection is key to mitigating this risk. Remember, avalanches cannot occur on slopes less than 30 degrees. Look for signs like drifting, shooting cracks, and collapsing. Listen for hollow, drum-like sounds and feel for changes in snow density from soft to firm or shallow to deep. Wind-textured surfaces indicate wind loading, and wind lips highlight the most concerning slopes. Instability will be greatest during or just after peak storm intensity. Watch for rapidly accumulating snow and shifting wind direction. Adapt your travel to the changing conditions.

    Wind slab below a ridge on the west side of the forecast area.

    Photo: Nick Meyers

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Heavy snowfall is expected today. Both slabs and sluffs of storm snow could occur on all aspects near and below treeline, where more than five inches of snow has accumulated. These problems will intensify with additional snowfall and be most sensitive during or just after peak storm intensity.

    Dry-loose snow has been observed throughout the forecast area. Today's cold temperatures will help keep the snow dry and unconsolidated. These avalanches begin at one point and fan out, entraining more snow as they move downhill. They pose the greatest risk in complex terrain, where you could be swept off your feet and carried into a terrain trap. Stay alert for sluff build-up and be ready to move out of its path. Throw a snowball down slope and see if it gathers and entrains more snow to give you an idea of potential instability.

    Storm slabs often catch travelers off guard, especially in and near timbered areas where a false sense of security can develop. If the trees are wide enough for you to ride through, they’re wide enough for snow to slide through. Monitor snowfall amounts and check for slab development as you travel. Convex terrain are likely trigger points for storm slabs. Small, inconsequential test slopes can be useful for assessing this problem. 

    Small dry loose avalanche initiated by skis

    Photo: Eric Falconer

Avalanche Discussion

As the snowpack adjusts to another load of snow, be on the lookout for shooting cracks and collapsing, dig down and investigate the stability of recently accumulated snow before committing to steep terrain. Don't let end of season powder fever lure you into unsafe terrain. Keep your guard up today. 

As of 6 A.M. storm totals: 

Old Ski Bowl: 4.4 inches 

Mount Eddy: 4.9 inches

Castle Lake: 1.3 inches

Middle Boulder: 6.9 inches

Recent observations from the Eddy mountains reviled the top four to five inches of surface snow to be dry and unconsolidated. This will give the winds ample ammunition for snow transport today. The old snow/new snow interface proved unreactive in stability tests, and no recent avalanches or signs of instability were observed. 

 

 

 

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