Avalanche forecast

Avalanche forecast

Payette Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Wet loose avalanches will be very likely today. These slides may occur at all elevations and on all aspects of the compass.  The upper 2-3 feet of our snowpack has become very saturated with water over the past 5 days. The potential for larger wet loose avalanches,  widespread cornice failures, and naturally occurring wet slab avalanches will remain with us for at least one or two more days. Avoid traveling in or below steep terrain as the snowpack continues to weaken.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Currently, temperatures are in the low 40's around 7500' throughout our advisory area. These are the warmest overnight low temperatures we have seen since this heatwave began five days ago. These temperatures are not allowing the snowpack to refreeze at night and are weakening the snowpack more each day.  You can expect to see wet loose activity on all aspects of the compass and throughout all elevations.  Wet loose avalanches often begin as small point releases and can easily grow in size as they travel and grab more wet snow in their path.   Pay attention to the terrain that is above you and avoid steep slopes and terrain traps like gullies and avalanche paths.  

    Wet loose avalanches are typically small and easy to manage. This is currently not the case. Wet loose avalanches have become widespread through the heatwave and are becoming larger in size. Give a wide berth from steep slopes if you are traveling in the mountains today.

    (3/26/2022)

    Wet loose slides on E/SE aspect above 8000'

    Photo: PAC

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Meltwater has been impacting the upper 2-3 feet of our snowpack for five days now. Faceted, weak layers have become saturated and are showing signs of concern. Today is the last day of our prolonged warmup and wet slab avalanches should be on your radar.  Wet slab avalanches are like big, rogue waves.  They are unpredictable and relatively rare until conditions line up.  All of the conditions have been lining up for the past several days. The snowpack will take several days to refreeze once temperatures do begin to cool down tomorrow. 

    Wet slab avalanches require a healthy dose of respect as they can be very destructive and unsurvivable. They are also difficult to predict.  Unfortunately, your best option to navigate this problem is avoidance. Stay away from steep slopes and give the snowpack a chance to heal after this heatwave is your safest option.

    (3/26/2022)

    *Saturday 03/26/22 not 27th

    Photo: PAC

Avalanche Discussion

Today's advisory is sponsored by Mile High Powersports just South of McCall on highway 55, Thanks for supporting the PAC and the Friends! Also, don't forget about the FPAC showing of Buried next Friday and Saturday. Click here for more info.

Today is day # 5 of this March heatwave. Here are some numbers for you: Secesh snotel site (6500') has lost 10 inches of snow and 2" of water since Tuesday the 22nd. This same site has recorded a high temperature in the low 50's every day since Wednesday the 23rd. The last two nights, the Granite mountain weather station (7800') has recorded a low temperature of 39 F(yesterday) and 42 F (this morning). These numbers are alarming. Remember, the snowpack does not like rapid changes. The weather events of the past five days have been nothing but a rapid change. We have been observing meltwater saturate the upper 2-3 feet of the snowpack for several days. Near-record, low temperatures are not allowing the upper snowpack to refreeze at night and this gives wet avalanche problems a jumpstart before the sun begins warming the snow.

If you do find yourself recreating in the mountains today, my advice is to stay away from steep slopes. Stay off of steep slopes and avoid being underneath steep terrain. Our snowpack has been heavily stressed through this warmup and now is not the time to hit those big lines you've been eyeing throughout the season. Now is the time to back off and give our snowpack time to heal and adjust to the weather events of these past five days. Remember rapid changes? The snowpack will take more time than you think to rebound after temperatures cool off. We have a few more days with wet avalanche problems. 

Cornice failures: One more hazard to add to the mix today. Ridgetops have been harboring large cornices all season and we have seen some of these let go during the warmup. Be aware of failing cornices overhead. If you find yourself on ridgetops, give plenty of room while traveling around large cornices.