Avalanche forecast

Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Very dangerous avalanche conditions exist. Widespread avalanching is certain. Some will be large enough to snap trees or destroy a wood-frame house. Avalanches can be easily triggered from long distances away from steeper slopes. Avoid all avalanche terrain—stay off and out from below slopes steeper than about 30 degrees.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Certain
    Size
    1.5–2

    Large, 1-3’ thick avalanches are almost certain. Storm snow is perched precariously atop well-developed weak layers, including facets, facet + crust combinations, and surface hoar (image). Snowfall and continued wind-blown snow will push many slopes to their breaking point. 

    While the size and likelihood of these slides increase in areas exposed to the wind—all steep slopes are suspect. Cracks shooting out from your skis or boards clearly indicate instability. Avalanches can be triggered from a large distance above, below, or to the side of the slope that avalanches.

    These smaller Persistent Slab avalanches could "step down," triggering the much larger avalanches described below.

    (1/11/2024) This large avalanche was remotely triggered in the Headwaters drainage. Ben and his partner on Thursday afternoon were over 100 feet away, on the opposite side of the ridge when they triggered this collapse and resulting avalanche.  This avalanche ran through some very hazardous terrain and was plenty large to bury a person.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Huge, destructive avalanches are likely today. They will release on weak snow layers near the ground. These layers are found on all upper elevation slopes and most middle elevation slopes facing W-N-E. They can release on their own or be triggered by thinner avalanches that involve the recent storm snow (Problem 1 above).

    These avalanches have the potential to break thousands of feet wide, snapping trees as they run full path to the valley floor. Both of our Persistent Slab problems have the very real potential to be triggered from a distance, above below, or to the sides of steep slopes. Avalanches of this size can run much further into flat terrain than you might expect.

Avalanche Discussion

Today’s one of those days to stay out of the way. Multiple overlapping weak layers in the middle and base of the snowpack will be put to the test. Intense snowfall appears to be focused on the Soldiers, western Smokys, and Sawtooths, but that only tells half of the story. 

Wind speeds kicked up as an arctic cold front swept through the forecast area last night, and there’s a lot of snow to blow around out there. Prior to this storm, many slopes lacked a stiff enough slab to avalanche—that changes today. Strong wind will mix into middle elevations, building slabs and creating dangerous avalanche conditions on many steep slopes. 

Don’t overthink it. There’s no other option than to avoid avalanche terrain, including flat areas that are threatened from above.

Regions covered