Avalanche forecast

Togwotee Pass

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
No rating
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche danger will rise throughout the day. Incoming snowfall and strong winds could create dangerous avalanche conditions in middle and upper elevation terrain by the afternoon. Human triggered avalanches will be likely in steep, wind loaded terrain. In addition, new snow will stress buried weak layers making it possible to trigger a destructive avalanche up to 4 feet in depth. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended today.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Heavy snowfall is expected to develop in the Togwotee Pass area by midday. Nearly 10 inches of snow containing over half an inch of snow water equivalent (SWE) could fall by evening. Ridgetop winds at 10,000’ are gusting to 40 mph at 5 am and are expected to increase throughout the day. If the weather forecast verifies, expect sensitive new slabs up to 2 feet in depth to form in exposed upper elevation terrain by the afternoon. In some locations, these new slabs could form on top of existing wind slabs formed over the past few days. Slab depths will be greater in terrain where this occurs.

    Careful snowpack evaluation will be important today. If you observe significant new snowfall (greater than 4-6”) and windy conditions, then it is safest to steer clear of steep terrain and seek lower angle, sheltered slopes.

    (2/22/2024)

    Recent avalanche activity in the Togwotee Pass area.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    The weak snow at the base of the snowpack will be stressed by the wind and snow expected in the upcoming storm. Persistent slabs become easier to trigger as they experience loading. Steep, rocky, and wind-affected terrain continue to warrant caution as these avalanches are most likely to initiate where the snowpack is thinner. If triggered, these slabs could be up to 4 feet in depth.  It is challenging to predict how persistent slabs will behave during storm cycles and the weight of a skier or rider can tip the scales. As the weather changes today, use caution and make conservative terrain choices. 

    Extra caution is advised in terrain where problem #1 and #2 overlap.

    (2/22/2024)

    A snowpit dug near the crown of a recent avalanche shows the weak snow a the bottom of the snowpack.

Avalanche Discussion

There is a good deal of uncertainty regarding the timing of the incoming storm. It is possible that the storm hits later than expected. If this happens, avalanche conditions will be less dangerous during the day. On the other hand, it is possible that the incoming storm hits hard at midday. Avalanche conditions in the afternoon will be dangerous if this option pans out. It will be very important to evaluate the snow conditions for yourself today. Thankfully, it is a fairly straightforward decision. If it is snowing and blowing, then expect avalanches in steep terrain. If it’s just windy, then be on the lookout for drifted snow in steep, exposed areas and avoid rocky shallow terrain where the persistent problem is at its worst. Given the uncertainty in the weather forecast it is best to make a conservative tour plan and give yourself safe options if conditions deteriorate.

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