Avalanche forecast

Elkhorns

Wallowa Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

A weak snowpack structure, recent rain, and warm temperatures could be enough to produce large avalanches.  Human-triggered and natural wet snow avalanches will be likely today.  Reduce your risk through careful terrain selection and when in doubt stick to slopes less than 30 degrees.  

This forecast is sponsored by Wallowa County Gamblers Snowmobile Club

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–3

    We continue to talk about how we have poor snowpack structure, which is still the case.  In the Northern and Southern Wallowas and Elkhorns, this weak layer in the snowpack can be found between 2-6+ feet beneath the snow surface.  The depth of the weak snow ranges depending on your elevation and aspect.  Over the past 2 days, we have seen a steep spike in temperatures and have received rain and a little snow.  These unseasonably warm temperatures will continue throughout the day and freezing levels will remain between 7000-8500 ft through Monday and then start to drop.   Give the snowpack time to adjust to this big change and increase your margins when traveling in and around avalanche terrain.  

    Over the past week, we have seen both natural and human-triggered avalanches.   This is the best source of information that you need to dial back your terrain choices.  If you want to avoid avalanches you should stay off of slopes greater than 30 degrees, and stay away from terrain traps, run-out zones, and other slopes connected to where you are traveling.  

      

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Over the past few days, we have had increased temperatures and rain on snow leaving the top layer of the snowpack uncohesive.   Temperatures remain above freezing overnight and will continue to be 10-15 degrees above normal through Wednesday.  Wet snow avalanches are difficult to escape.  The best way to manage this problem is to avoid avalanche terrain.

Avalanche Discussion

Whenever we have a big change in the weather, forecasting can be tricky.  The main message is that the snowpack structure remains unstable which keeps us on our toes.  In the past week, we have seen both human-triggered and natural avalanches.  The unseasonable warm temperatures we will continue to experience through Wednesday will produce wet snow problems.  These wet loose avalanches could potentially step down to deeper weak layers in the snowpack creating much larger destructive avalanches.  The slab we have sitting on top of weak sugar snow will continue to be a threat.  Give the snowpack time to adjust to these big changes persist in your patience and increase our margins.  

We appreciate all of the observations that have been coming into the WAC from all of our zones.  It truly adds value to your forecast.  Keep 'em coming! Submit your obs here. 

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