Avalanche forecast

West Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Avalanche danger will increase to Considerable at mid and upper elevations as a storm dumps over a foot of snow at higher elevations. Avoid traveling on steep slopes with greater than 6-8" of new snow, especially in areas where wind drifts it deeper. Moist snow near freezing line elevations or if the sun pops out may result in small wet avalanches on steep slopes. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Avalanche danger will increase for Monday as over a foot of snow is expected to fall at mid and upper elevations Sunday night. Human triggered avalanches are likely. There is uncertainty regarding how much avalanche activity will result, but when in doubt, avoid slopes steeper than 35° in areas where you find more than 6-8" of snow over the Solstice Crust. Avalanche danger will be highest in the morning, as the storm is coming to a close. 

    Investigate bonding between this new snow layer and the previous day's few inches of snow over the Solstice Crust. Also check how well snow is sticking to the obvious Solstice Crust layer, which will likely be about 1 1/2ft or so below the new snow surface in non wind-affected, upper elevation areas. If snow slides easily at any of these interfaces, avoid steep slopes. Pay attention to obvious clues like long, shooting cracks as indicators that snow will slide on steep slopes. If you find wind drifted snow in steeper terrain, there's a higher likelihood that you could trigger an avalanche in those locations. 

    (3/25/2023)

    Example of an avalanche that could be very similar to what we see Monday: A small human triggered soft slab avalanche in the Baker backcountry which ran just a little above the crust. North facing, 5100ft. 

    Photo: Jason Speer

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Freezing lines will hover in the 4000-4500ft range on Monday. Around these elevations, we may get wet, heavy snow and resulting wet loose avalanches. If you see rollerballs or snow fanning out and sliding down, avoid traveling beneath these slopes. If you're triggering rollerballs or small avalanches as you travel on steep slopes, be sure to avoid getting caught by staying above them and planning your travel to avoid them. We're not sure how much new damp snow there might be, but there may be several inches and avalanches could pick up quite a bit of mass and potentially slide easily on the underlying solstice crust. 

    If the sun comes out, wet loose avalanches could quickly initiate on steep slopes facing into the sun. Pay attention to sky cover and subsequent avalanche activity. If you encounter these conditions, avoid traveling on or beneath steep slopes in the area. 

    (1/27/2023)

    Example photo: Wet loose avalanches and rollerballs may occur in damp storm snow or on steep, sunny slopes if the sun comes out. 

    Photo: Julz Holder - Grounding Truth

Avalanche Discussion

A skier in the Baker backcountry on Sunday (OBSERVATION) found 4-8 inches of new snow from the previous night over the refreezing Solstice Crust. They reported that the snow was well bonded to the crust, and the main hazard was avoiding avalanche debris from wet slides earlier in the week, hidden under the new snow. Aside from increased avalanche danger, your largest hazard on Monday will be unintentionally finding glide cracks, avalanche debris, and other features hidden beneath the new snow. You should expect that many steep slopes will have avalanche debris on and below them. 

We received over 5 inches of predominantly rain since Tuesday, and many wet slab and glide avalanches resulted. Most wet avalanche activity is likely behind us. We hope that temperature trends will keep cooler for a while and the old wet snow will start freezing up. With this, we generally feel that the snowpack beneath the Solstice Crust has locked up and our avalanche concerns are limited to above the Solstice Crust, for now.

We've got a steady stream of incoming storms welcoming us in on this holiday week, so make sure to stay on your toes when traveling in the backcountry. If you make it out, please help us out and share what you saw by SUBMITTING AN OBSERVATION.

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