Avalanche forecast

Selkirk Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

You can trigger a large avalanche at middle and upper elevations, but your chances increase on the north side of the compass, where slabs of snow sitting on weak layers are thicker and have been stiffened. Avalanches can propagate widely across the slope, but might not present with typical feedback or surface clues like shooting cracks prior to triggering. Try to identify if weak layers are present in the snowpack before committing to a slope, and if there is any uncertainty, opt for a travel plan that builds in an extra margin of safety and avoids traveling on or below steep open terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Incremental snowfall from January 28 through early February has formed slabs ranging from roughly 6 inches to 1 foot thick, resting on a persistent weak layer. The primary concern is buried surface hoar and sugary faceted snow located near a mid-January crust. These weak layers are particularly problematic because they may not produce obvious warning signs, such as cracking or collapsing, while traveling. However, recent snowpack tests have repeatedly shown easy propagation across large columns, highlighting the fragile and reactive nature of these grains.

    A series of warm days followed by overnight refreezing has produced a firm melt-freeze crust at the snow surface. Southerly aspects have been most affected by this warming trend, with heat penetrating deeper into the snowpack. On slopes where the surface is softening, a skier or rider is more likely to trigger an avalanche that could step down to the buried weak layers, propagate widely, and connect multiple terrain features. Because persistent slab problems are notoriously difficult to evaluate and predict, travelers should build in extra safety margins by making conservative terrain choices and favoring slopes less than 30 degrees.

    Slab depth in our west aspect snow pit was around 10 cm thick. Recent warm temperatures have dramatically helped stiffen the slab over the surface hoar. Where slabs are either stiffer from drifting, or the recent warm-up, or deeper in total depth (closer to 30 cm), are where we've been observing the most consistent propagating failures. Selkirk Mountains. February 6, 2026.

    Photo: Chris Bilbrey

Avalanche Discussion

Finally, the long anticipated shift in weather starts to unfold this afternoon, and we will enter a more active and wet period. The flip side is that this storm system initially comes in warm with high snow lines between 6000’-5000’. This means things will get worse before they get better- as in, expect rain before we get too excited about potential snow amounts. With the timing of the storm track, there will likely be little change in conditions during daylight hours today, but we can look forward to things picking up overnight and into Sunday.

Filed teams in the Selkirk Mountains yesterday covered some ground and continued to test the sensitivity of the buried weak layers that are driving the persistent slab problem. They found a common theme: The slab depth or slab stiffness above the weak layer is the main driver in propagating results vs. non-propagating results. This means that on slopes where wind created thicker slabs from drifting prior to the warm up are the most likely places to trigger an avalanche. This recipe can be found on more of the north side of the compass, with west, north, and east-facing slopes holding the highest potential to trigger a persistent slab avalanche.

As we keep gathering snowpack data to pin down the distribution of preserved weak layers, continue to have a healthy suspicion around all aspects at middle and upper elevations. Before the late January snowfall, all aspects had developed weak snow that got buried, whether that be facets or surface hoar. Recent warming on southerly aspects may have helped diminish some of the weak grains, especially at middle elevations. Because these weak layers are buried on average 6”-12” down, taking a few moments to dig in the snow and investigate the snowpack structure before committing to a slope is a quick endeavor. This can provide a helpful snapshot of what is happening right below you, and should be an ongoing process throughout your travels. You may not be able to find buried surface hoar directly below the ridge line, but it could be preserved a few turns down on the slope.

Cloud cover last night may have trapped warmer air and limited any radiational cooling. Surfaces may be softer than the previous several days, and temperatures will get above freezing in the mountains today. Monitor surface conditions, and if you are sinking into punchy wet snow, consider rerouting to lower-angle terrain or try to find a slope with a more supportable surface to avoid running into a small wet snow problem.

Once precipitation starts, it will be a game of temperatures cooperating by just a few degrees that decides how much snowfall we receive and where. This leaves us with a bit of uncertainty around how things will settle out, but regardless, a new load on the current snowpack will inevitably introduce change and raise the danger. Once things officially start to unfold, we will gain more clarity around how the snowpack adjusts to more weight being added.

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