Avalanche forecast

Seward and Lost Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Lingering wind slabs up to 1' deep along ridgelines at upper elevations are the main concern today. These are getting more stubborn to trigger now that the winds are easing off. Deeper avalanches on buried weak layers up to 6' deep are still on our radar, but there have not been any recent human-triggered avalanches reported involving these old weak layers. Despite the fair weather and relatively quiet avalanche conditions, it is always a good idea to travel one at a time in avalanche terrain, spot your partners, and carefully choose terrain to reduce your exposure to terrain traps. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Recent Avalanches: We got to Lost Lake on Sunday and saw only one avalanche that may have been recent. This looked like a small wind slab. It was hard to tell because the wind was blowing strongly and the crown was getting filled in.

    Light northwest winds are expected to continue today, averaging 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Similar conditions to yesterday, with the potential for some new wind loading at upper elevations along ridgelines and convex features. There is still a chance of triggering a stubborn wind slab around 1' deep, but the likelihood is decreasing since most of the soft snow on the surface that could be transported into wind slabs has already been wind affected. Keep an eye out for shooting cracks and hollow feeling pillows of wind-loaded snow to identify locations with lingering wind slabs. 

    Dry loose avalanches are likely in steep sheltered terrain. These are typically not large enough to bury a person, but they can knock you off balance in steep terrain. 

    Cornice fall is also possible with the sun starting to impact the snowpack more as we move towards the spring season. This is a typical mountain hazard that starts to become more dangerous later in the season as cornices grow larger and nice weather allows us to access alpine ridgelines more frequently. 

    Winds blowing on Mt Ascension on Sunday.

    Photo: Daniel Krueger

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    Larger avalanches on buried weak layers 2 to 6' deep are still within the realm of possibility, but trending towards very unlikely. Daniel observed a very large avalanche near Snug Harbor over the weekend that potentially occurred on this weak layer over a week ago during the warm and wet storm system. Our field observations have been showing an encouraging trend towards these layers becoming less concerning, but in thin spots in the snowpack above 2500', there is still the potential to trigger a very large avalanche. The fact that there were many slope testers out in the mountains this weekend, and no human-triggered avalanches were reported on this weak layer, is another encouraging sign. 

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