Avalanche forecast

Hatcher Pass

Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE  above 3,500' for WIND SLAB and PERSISTENT SLAB avalanches. The danger is MODERATE below 3,500' for WIND SLAB and PERSISTENT SLAB avalanches. Below 2,500', the danger is MODERATE for WIND SLAB avalanches. 

Natural avalanches are possible, and human-triggered avalanches are likely. 

Be on the lookout for fresh drifts of wind-blown snow in steep terrain today. With new snow falling across a variety of surfaces, you could trigger loose-snow avalanches or sluffs that could knock you off your feet and carry you downhill. These may break wider than you expect, especially where winds have built thin drifts. 

You could still trigger a larger slide over 3 feet deep on slopes with a shallow snowpack, where buried weak layers near the ground are closer to the surface and easier for a skier or rider to trigger. 

SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

What do butter chicken, Mass Appeal, and snow nerding have in common? They will all be at BHB tonight. TODAY, Feb. 11th, is our monthly State of the Snowpack at Bleeding Heart Brewery in Palmer at 6 PM. Bring yourself, your backcountry partners, and any questions you may have. HPAC forecasters will facilitate a seasonal snowpack summary, Q & A, and an interactive game about decision-making in and around avalanche terrain. See you there! 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Yesterday, Southeasterly winds gusted over 20 miles per hour and peaked near 50 miles per hour over a 12-hour period. Expect to find fresh slabs of our recent snowfall in specific terrain today. 

    Be on the lookout for areas where the wind has built fresh drifts of new snow.  Look for signs of wind loading, such as a scalloped or textured snow surface. It will be possible to find pillows, dunes, or other signs of thick, widespread wind slabs. Smooth, hollow-sounding or feeling snow and shooting cracks are signs you have found new snow instabilities. Avalanches may break wider than you expect in places where the wind has drifted and consolidated new snow into slabs. 

    You are most likely to trigger a wind slab as you climb in elevation below ridgelines in leeeward, steep, and convex-shaped terrain. Note that shifting winds will have cross-loaded gully features on multiple aspects.  Although less likely, do not be surprised to find a soft slab in lower elevations on isolated terrain features such as steep drainage walls and open faces. 

    DRY LOOSE:

    Expect to be able to kick off a dry loose sluff today. You could find loose snow at all elevations in steep terrain above 35 degrees where the wind has not affected new snow. These sluffs will not be large, but if triggered in areas where new snow has fallen on firm surfaces with continuity, they could catch you off guard and send you into hazardous terrain like rocks and drainages. Reduce consequences by managing your fall line and avoiding terrain traps. 

    Southeasterly winds in the 20s gusting near 50 miles per hour blew for 10+ hours yesterday--enough to transport new snow accumulated since Sunday. 

    Photo: Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    It remains possible to trigger a consequential avalanche 1-3' deep on weak snow near the ground. Despite new snow, the snowpack around Hatcher Pass remains variable and overall shallow. You are most likely to encounter this problem in upper-elevation terrain, where our season's snowpack rests on weak, sugary snow near the ground. At mid elevations below 3,500', it is possible that cumulative snow and wind load has tipped the scale to make this problem more reactive. Your chances of finding and triggering a persistent slab avalanche up to 3' deep will be higher as you gain elevation and proximity to steep, shallow, rocky terrain.

    The easiest way to manage this problem is to select terrain with a steepness of less than about 30 degrees. If you do choose to get into avalanche terrain (slopes steeper than 30 degrees), you can pick terrain with a seemingly uniformly deep snow pack greater than about 3' deep—although be aware that you could trigger a slide from the edges or the middle of a slope where the snowpack is shallow and variable. 

    (2/4/2026) Photo: Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center

    The looker's rights, skier's left flank & crown looks fresher, likely failing on 01/28. 

    It has been more than 10 days since we saw activity on this poor structure: new, incremental snow could tip the balance today. 

Avalanche Discussion

If you have not been paying attention to the snowpack in Hatcher Pass, here are a few things to consider when selecting terrain today: 

  • Before snowfall began on Sunday, it had been 10 days of dry weather. New snow is falling onto a weak, faceted snow surface. In very steep terrain, dry loose avalanches or sluffs could knock you off your feet and carry you where you don’t want to go—especially in places where wind has drifted snow or stiffened and consolidated the new snow. These slides could break wider than you expect.
  • Last weekend, skiers near Friendship Pass found unstable test results failing below a thin crust that formed in late January. Following the snowfall at the end of January, we saw avalanche activity involving this crust. Despite almost two weeks of mild temperatures. This crust may be a culprit layer today failing under the weight of newly formed slabs. 
  • Slopes with a shallow snowpack remain the primary concern, where buried weak layers near the ground are closer to the surface and easier for a skier or rider to trigger. Be wary of stepping onto steep slopes with a shallow snowpack and exposed rocks.

It is great to see snowfall return to Hatcher Pass, and this light refresh should improve skiing and snowmachining conditions. However, a generally shallow snowpack with multiple buried weak layers and weak snow near the surface has us talking intentionally about entering steep terrain at upper elevations. Uncertainty remains how this trickle of snow, now surpassing one foot of snow and past 1" of Snow Water Equivalent, will re-activate these layers, especially the weak structure near the ground. 

Hedge your bets by calming powder fever, taking time to assess a slope for new-snow problems, and considering the consequences of triggering a larger, more destructive slide that fails deeper in the snowpack.

RECENT AVALANCHES: 

It has been more than 10 days since a party remotely triggered a large persistent slab avalanche on Microdot after several people had skied the slope. Read the forecaster observation for Microdot here. There have been no reported or observed avalanches in the last week. See all recent observations here.

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