Avalanche forecast

Selkirk Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Wind speeds have been strong enough to not only build dense slabs in typical places like below ridgelines and around steep terrain features, but have also been drifting snow further downslope. Many of the same aspects that are concealing persistent weak layers buried 2 to 4 feet deep are developing these growing slabs, which will be most sensitive above tree line. You can steer clear of both of these hazards by planning a route that favors wind sheltered terrain with a slope angle less than 30 degrees.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Multiple days of strong winds have transported snow farther down slopes below ridgelines than is typical. Over the past three days, sustained southwest winds have built deeper, more reactive slabs on leeward aspects and around prominent terrain features. Expect to encounter pockets of wind-drifted snow at mid and upper elevations, especially near ridgetops.Gusty winds have also cross-loaded slopes, depositing snow into gullies, convex rollovers, and other terrain features regardless of aspect. If you observe signs of instability, such as shooting cracks or collapsing, avoid steep slopes and move to lower-angle terrain. Use cautious route finding when traveling near, above, or below wind-affected areas.

    Strong winds from the west and southwest have been transporting the recent snow on the leeward side of ridges, around steep terrain features, and on open, exposed slopes. A recent avalanche that failed from the new wind loading can be seen below the cornice and along the tree line. 

    February 26, 2026. 

    Photo: Izzy Davis

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Slabs sitting over multiple persistent weak layers are now 2 to 4 feet thick. An avalanche failing on any one of these buried layers, surface hoar, or faceted snow near crusts, would be large enough to bury, injure, or kill a person. These dangerous slabs developed gradually through February’s incremental snowfall and began producing dozens of large, destructive avalanches by mid-month. This week’s lighter snow totals haven’t added enough weight to trigger a widespread natural cycle. Instead, most slopes have become more resistant to failure, but some slopes have been pushed closer to their tipping point, primed for a trigger from a person or machine.

    As the slab has thickened and grown more cohesive across terrain features, the likelihood has decreased, but the potential for a larger avalanche size has increased. At the same time, classic red flags like shooting cracks and audible collapses have become less common, making the problem harder to detect without digging into the snowpack. While the persistent weak layer setup may be slowly trending in the right direction, unstable snowpack test results and continued reports of recent natural avalanches confirm the weak layers remain intact and capable of producing large slides. Maintain conservative terrain choices, give yourself wide margins for error, and adopt an avoidance mindset to reduce the risk of being caught off guard by a deep, dangerous avalanche.

    With the Valentine's Day (2/14) buried surface hoar 2 to 4 feet below the surface, an avalanche triggered on that layer would be large to very large, and be a high-consequence scenario. 

    February 26, 2026. 

    Photo: Izzy Davis

Avalanche Discussion

Conditions in the mountains the last few days have been downright windy. In the previous 24 hours, the Lake View Triple weather station in the Selkirk Mountains recorded a max wind gust of 68 mph, with an average speed of 34 mph. Down south in the Silver Valley-Bitterroots, weather stations recorded a max gust of 40 mph with average speeds in the mid 20s mph. With such elevated speeds, the wind direction has swirled around basins and down into the valleys, but the primary wind direction has been the southwest.

Wind speeds start to lower on Saturday, but the chance to trigger a large, dense wind slab remains. Consistently strong winds have stiffened and condensed the recent snow into hard slabs, which can be identified by a significant density change from soft snow to firm, punchy surface snow. Typically, we can expect these slabs to be found directly below ridge lines, at the tops of gullies, and along steep terrain features. Because wind speeds have been consistently strong, the reach of the wind effect encompasses the typical areas, but also extends further down into the tree line than where we normally see drifting.

This setup has created an overlap of the current avalanche problems. Many of the same aspects that are developing Wind Slabs are also the same areas where persistent weak layers are buried 2 to 4 feet deep. While the slab resting above the weak layers continues to stiffen and consolidate, the likelihood of triggering an avalanche is becoming slightly more difficult. Recent snowpack tests suggest that it is taking more force to get these layers to fail, but they still continue to produce propagating results. This is the classic scary setup where sensitivity is trending down, but the consequences are increasing.

With Sunday marking the first day of meteorological spring, I suppose it’s only appropriate that classic springtime weather follows with it. Mountain temperatures will creep into the upper 30s to low 40s Fahrenheit on Saturday, in conjunction with blue skies. This will deliver the first rapid warm up to the recent snow.

While pinning down the exact time frame for wet snow problems to unfold is notoriously tricky, we can expect lower elevations and solar aspects to trend in that direction today. Be on the lookout for signs of this warm-up as the sun influences the surface snow. Observing pinwheels shedding around cliff bands and gaining in size is one of the first red flags that snow is losing cohesion from the warming. Seeing snow shedding near rocks and entraining more snow with it as it fans out, or sinking into wet snow beyond your boot top, are indicators that this problem is now well underway. Seek out low angle shaded aspects in the afternoon if these red flags manifest.

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