Avalanche forecast

Presidential Range

Mount Washington Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

You’re likely to trigger avalanches in new wind-drifted snow on steep east-facing and south-facing slopes above 3000 feet. Look for plumes of snow being moved by the wind and smooth, soft drifts of new snow that want to slide easily on top of hard snow underneath - signs of dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation and route-finding that manages your exposure to avalanche terrain is critical for safe travel today.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    What and where is it:Expect to find soft slabs of wind drifted snow on steep east-facing and south-facing slopes that are unstable and sensitive to your weight. If the winds increase through the day, wind slabs could become larger, more reactive, and could occur naturally and spontaneously. There is a potential for new wind slabs to break across the entire width of steep snow gullies or couloirs.How can you recognize it: Look for clear signs of snowpack instability including plumes of blowing snow near the ridgelines, shooting cracks in the snow under your feet, evidence of recent avalanches, and snow that slides easily on a harder snow layer below. As winds increase, new wind slabs may have an obvious strong-over-weak structure which can easily be assessed by digging down with your hand, a ski pole, or a shovel.How can you manage it: Make consistent observations throughout the day and apply them to your own decision making. Understand that the snowpack at the bottom of steep avalanche slopes might act much differently than the snow higher in the terrain above you. Be conservative in your decision making and recognize that even a small avalanche can have serious consequences in steep terrain.

Avalanche Discussion

Several uncertainties exist today, including the timing of increasing wind speeds, which will likely have the ability to move and redistribute new, low-density snow onto south and east aspects. A second area of uncertainty is avalanche size. Yesterday, two different skier-triggered avalanches occurred on steep, east-facing terrain in Tuckerman Ravine. The size of these avalanches were small, but they both demonstrated a high level of sensitivity and the ability to propagate widely across the slope. As wind speeds have continued to slowly increase, these slabs have the potential to become larger and more sensitive throughout the day. 

In the scenario where slabs are only a few inches thick, remember that they have already proven to be very sensitive and propagate long distances. Even a small avalanche has the ability to knock a person off balance and cause a fall in steep terrain, as we saw in one avalanche incident yesterday. 

In the scenario where slabs have become thicker - over a foot or more - this presents a much more dangerous problem with the potential to bury one or more people. Thicker slabs in the terrain will also present an increased danger of naturally-occurring avalanches, especially as the wind increases. 

If you choose to travel in avalanche terrain today, your ability to apply your own snowpack observations to your own decision making will be critical to making informed and safe decisions about terrain choices.

OBSERVATIONS: Please consider submitting an observation on our website or in the new Avy phone app of what you are seeing in your travels. Submitting an observation hones your skills, informs other users, and improves our forecasts.

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