Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Another sunny, warm day will maintain the chance of human-triggered wet avalanches in very steep sunny terrain, specifically closer to the Cascade Crest. Move to less consequential terrain if the snowpack feels wet, sloppy, and unsupportable. Give sagging cornices or blocks of snow clinging onto cliffs some space. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    This problem has likely run its course in many areas by now, but another warm, sunny day with 11,000  ft freezing levels will maintain a sloppy upper snowpack and the possibility of human-triggered avalanches on very steep, sun-exposed slopes. These wet loose could gouge into older snow layers or run on a crust from our January drought, depending on your aspect and location in the zone. While wet loose avalanches are the primary avalanche concern, don’t ignore sagging cornices or blocks of snow that could fail without warning during warm periods like this.

    As the day heats up, start paying attention to the supportability of the upper snowpack and activly look for signs of warming like rollerballs and pinwheels shedding. While this problem is often considered to be more manageable, don’t get complacent in complex terrain where a wet loose could push you into unwanted terrain. You can reduce your exposure to this wet snow problem by moving to shadier aspects or lower-angle terrain. 

    (3/24/2022)

    Take a moment to step off your mode of travel to see how deeply you are plunging into the snow. If you are sinking in past your ankle, start to think about wet avalanches. 

    Photo: Dallas Glass

Avalanche Discussion

The moderate danger is driven by another day of warm mountain temperatures, particularly closer to the Cascade crest, where more recent snow exists over the January Drought Interface, and the potential size of wet avalanches could be larger. While natural wet avalanches have run their course across the zone, it may still be possible for a human to push wet avalanches on very steep and unsupported terrain in the sun, where the snowpack feels wet and unsupportable after several days of above-freezing temperatures.  These conditions are by no means scary, but don’t ignore the unusually warm February temperatures as the surface crust breaks down, and the consequences of wet avalanches in bigger terrain. As you move further east in the zone, you can expect generally safe avalanche conditions and a sharky, thin snowpack. Fortunately, there is some precipitation in the forecast for the weekend, but it will likely start with high snow levels. It's still a little early to pin down precipitation totals, so stay tuned and look for changing avalanche conditions this weekend. 

An NWAC Forecaster traveling in the Teanaway last Saturday found moist snow at middle elevations that readily slid on a weak crust beneath.  A public observer traveling in the same area on Monday also reported triggering small wet loose avalanches. Then, on Wednesday, an observer traveling in the Stevens Pass zone close to the border of East Central reported more stubborn and isolated wet loose avalanches. 

There's dry ground across many low-elevation or south-facing slopes. The Wenatchees lack consistent snow coverage for on-snow recreation altogether. Plan ahead for challenging travel and be prepared to safely navigate stream crossings, exposed rocks, and other obstacles not typically encountered mid-winter.

If you head out into the mountains, let us know what you see by submitting an observation. 

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